Probability of development within 48 hours

IR Image - 10:45 PM CDT

Throughout the day an area of convection in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico has continued to organize. This is how systems like Bonnie and Colin formed earlier in the season. The Hurricane Center has not yet designated this an Invest so tropical-specific models have not yet been initiated. The NAM, which is not known for its tropical skills, has this system has a strong tropical storm making landfall by Tuesday Morning. Another model, created and used specifically for tropical systems, was run by a privite tropical weather enthuist earlier today. This model quickly developed this system and had it making landfall just south of the Texas border as a 984 MB Hurricane.

The above graphic is winds at 925 MB at 1 AM Tuesday Morning depicted by the 0Z NAM. Although it is not a tropical model and often does have errors, the placement of this possible system seems possible. This system will make landfall in a similar area as Alex, but likely will not be as strong. The main impacts from this system, whether it develops or not, will be flooding rainfall. Unfortunately for South Texas, this system will likely produce several inches of rain that will cause substantial flooding. The graphic below depicts the projected rainfall amounts from the 0Z NAM. On this run the system turns north near the US-281 corridor. For those who remember the system that affected East Texas in Early June, causing major flooding in Canton and Tyler, TX, this system will be similar in terms of rainfall. Wherever this system ends up inland there will be very high rainfall amounts and possible associated flooding.

There will be many more blog posts on this system. Even if it does not become a tropical system (named) it will cause major impacts later this week.

- David Reimer