Good Morning,

Invest 92L, located in the Central Caribbean, is producing an area of moderate to heavy convection in the generally vicinity of Jamaica this morning. Satellite data and reports from a reconnaissance aircraft continue to indicate a dis-organized area of low pressure. The maximum flight level winds reported as of 9:25 AM were just above 25 knots, so surface winds are likely sustained around 25 MPH in the general vicinity of the disturbance.

As of 8 AM the Hurricane Center continues to indicate a 40% chance of this disturbance becoming tropical in nature within 48 hours. As I said last night it is possible when this system develops a sustained low level circulation it may ramp up quickly due to the extremely favorable sea surface temperatures and oceanic heat content located in the Western Caribbean.

Now when this development occurs will be critical in determining how strong this system may become. Invest 92L has just under 48 hours before the effects of the Yucatan Peninsula begin to affect the system. Most models are showing Invest 92L as a tropical storm by Tuesday Morning. That would require the system to organize fairly rapidly by this evening and overnight tonight. Whether or not that occurs is still up in the air, but as of this morning the system remains disorganized. The majority of models keep this system a Tropical Storm as it won’t have a substantial amount of time to organize before making landfall.

While last night’s 0Z model runs has a spread from Texas down to Mexico, the models have come into better agreement this morning. It looks like a ridge over the United States will turn Invest 92L west into Mainland Mexico. As of this morning it does not look likely Texas will have any impacts from this system.

Meanwhile out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Igor continues to be a monstrous system. With the system reaching winds of 150 MPH last night it became the strongest hurricane of 2010 so far. The system should be preparing to undergo a Eyewall Replacement Cycle which will likely bring the system down to a CAT 3. Depending on how fast it goes through this process will determine if it has another chance to make a run at Category 5 status.

While Bermuda should remain on alert for this system, it looks like the models are coming into agreement that the system will re-curve near 62W, east of Bermuda. Errors out by 5 days can average 300 miles so Bermuda is definitely in the cone of uncertainty at this point and should remain alert for a major hurricane to be in their area by Friday.

Tropical Storm Julia continues to fight wind shear this morning and is a minimal tropical storm. Considering its current location it is likely this will be a fish storm. Most models make Julia a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane, but nothing more then that.

- David