Tropical Storm Nicole degenerated into a broad area of low pressure earlier this afternoon. Although no longer tropical in nature, this is an unusually strong system and resembles more of a nor’easter then anything tropical. Flash Flood/Flood Watches are in effect from South Carolina all the way up to New England. As the image above shows, heavy convection extends from Cuba to North Carolina, where a tornado watch is now in effect. The moisture axis extends northward into Canada, along the leading edge of a trough.

The above graphic is the 2 day precipitation forecast from the Hydrological Prediction Center in Washington D.C. As can be easily seen, the highest precipitation totals are forecasted to be over Delaware and Southern New Jersey. While the entire mid-atlantic may see rain amounts over five inches, those specific areas have the highest potential to receive rain amounts over ten inches, possibly as high as a foot in some areas. A forecaster from HPC mentioned in a discussion earlier today this event could be at, or beyond the magnitude of the historic June 2006 flooding which impacted the same areas.

These were the rain amounts for the June 2006 flood event. The predicted rainfall amounts for the next two days are generally comparable to the 2006 flood event. Needless to say, at this point the potential is high for a major to catastrophic flooding event that will encompass the Mid-Atlantic. Some streams and rivers may hit 50 to 100 year flood event designations and its probable that some areas will be inundated. This is a very dangerous situation and those who were affected by the 2006 flood event, or live near a flood zone should be prepared for possible evacuations. One specific area from New Jersey I remember flooding in the 2006 flood was Lumberton, NJ.  According to the graphic above, that area received three to six inches of rain. Rain totals with this event could be one to two inches per hour. A sounding in the area tonight reported near record precipitable water values of 2.50 inches. That is a number associated with extreme rainfall rates and is almost unheard of in this region. Many roads will become impassible due to flash flooding and rising streams. Urban flooding will become common, and its important to remember not to drive into any water that covers the road. This event personally affects me and I will be keeping the social media feeds, along with the blog, updated with real-time reports from people on location in New Jersey, along with the latest from emergency services.

This will unfortunately become a national news story by the weekend. Bet on it.