October 17, 2011 » Texas Storm Chasers

[caption id="attachment_4466" align="aligncenter" width="550" caption="Chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location"]width=”550″ height=”380″ />[/caption]

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the probability of severe weather occuring across North Texas and South/Southeastern Oklahoma later this evening into the overnight hours. While the 5% contour remains, a 15% contour has been introduced, thus we now have a standard risk of severe weather across North Texas. As we explained in the morning blog post, the primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging outflow winds as a squall line pushes through with the cold front. This is not expected to be a significant severe weather event, but as we saw in September, even when we have marginally severe storms move through the metroplex, they have a tendency to make a big impact in terms of power outages. We’ll be out chasing later this evening and should have our live stream up and running. Stay tuned!

Read our morning discussion here.

[caption id="attachment_4462" align="aligncenter" width="550" caption="Risk of Severe Weather occurring within 25 miles of your location"][/caption]

Two days ago, we weren’t even expecting any showers or thunderstorms across North Texas, but a few subtle changes in the track of an upper level disturbance along with higher moisture amounts will likely allow a line of thunderstorms to develop along a strong cold front that will be blasting south across Texas this evening and overnight. The above graphic is the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given location. Right now, no formal risk of severe weather has been issued, but a low-end threat currently exists. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that they may increase the probability of severe weather in later outlooks. The primary threats would be large hail and destructive straight line winds.

[caption id="attachment_4463" align="aligncenter" width="509" caption="15Z High Resolution Rapid Refresh at 9 PM CDT"][/caption]

Here’s one model’s depiction of convection around 9 PM tonight. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh showing a simulated radar image at 9 PM. Don’t expect the radar to look like this, but this is one possible scenario. The line of storms will build southward out of Oklahoma, along the cold front as the cold front moves southeast. There is still uncertainty how far south the line of storms builds, but most models are showing it building as far south as I-20/I-30 along/east of I-35. Frankly, it’s all going to depend on how high the moisture content is when the cold front arrives. Should moisture amounts be lower then expected, storms may not form south of the Red River. If moisture amounts are higher then expected, they could be more significant then currently anticipated. Right now, it appears likely that folks in/north of D/FW will see some rain tonight, along with Northeast Texas.

We’re planning on heading out tonight to test out our equipment upgrades in the Ford Explorer. The plan is to head out around 6:30 PM and head north towards Gainesville or Sherman, but we may only have to go up towards US-380 as the cold front moves in. We just tested out the live camera and it’s working fine, so we should have live video available later tonight. We’ll have updates throughout the day on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

Daily Archives: October 17, 2011

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