Archive for October 22nd, 2011

October 22, 2011 Severe Weather Risk

Published on Saturday, 22 October 2011 10:42

David Reimer

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Severe Weather Risks within 25 miles of your location (Click image for larger version)

With another atmospheric disturbance moving across the region later this afternoon and evening, along with sufficient amounts of gulf moisture and instability, we’re looking at the possibility of another evening/night of thunderstorms across Central/Southern Oklahoma and North/Northeast Texas. Compared to Monday, the severe weather threat will be higher today. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a standard risk of severe weather roughly from the Dallas – Fort Worth Metroplex and points north in North Texas into Oklahoma. The main portion of the above image shows the probability of experiencing severe hail within 25 miles of your location. The teal line indicates a 15% chance while the yellow line indicates a 30% chance (or nearly a 1 in 3 chance) of severe hail (AOA 1 inch) within 25 miles of your location.

In terms of timing, we should see a few thunderstorms initiate across Oklahoma by about 5 PM. These storms should make it to the Red River by 8 to 10 PM. After that, confidence in any solution lowers. Some model data is showing them pushing south of the Red River, impacting parts of North Texas this evening, while others show it remaining along/just north of the Red River. Right now, I believe that the primary line of thunderstorms will remain along/north of the Red River through 9 PM, but a secondary batch of showers/storms may form further south across North Texas by 9 PM. I know this isn’t the best forecast considering we have a World Series Game in Arlington tonight, but this is in a low confidence forecast. My piece of advice is to monitor the weather as we go into the afternoon and hopefully we get a better idea of what is going to happen.

In terms of chasing, I’m planning on leaving Dallas by about 1 PM and head up I-35 towards Ardmore in Oklahoma to wait it out. I’ll have my live stream up and running later this afternoon, so be sure to keep an eye on our Facebook/Twitter pages for that.