Are They Nuts??? The psychology behind why people attempt driving across flooded roadways.

25 January 2012 Jenny Brown 2 Comments

Every time a flash flood event happens, we’re barraged by media reports of high water rescues, pictures of stalled vehicles and news video of cars just floating down the road on a river of water. We stand there in front of the TV proclaiming “Are they nuts? Why would anyone drive into that? Are they stupid?”

Our first assumption is yes…they must be stupid! But research is starting to show us that stupidity actually has very little do to with it. Instead, sociologists call it “making a calculated decision.”

What was determined after last year’s tornado outbreaks in Dixie Alley and Joplin is that people, upon receiving a Warning of imminent danger, tend to look for confirmation that something dangerous IS about to happen to THEM before they will take action. Research after those tragic events showed that most people are solid on the difference between a “Watch” and a “Warning”. They understand the different meanings and realize there could be danger. But when it comes down to actually ACTING upon a Warning is when it gets a little shaky.

It’s no different in the case of flooded roadways. They’ll stop. Look. Maybe place a call to a neighbor to see if they made it. Some will wait until another vehicle comes along, see if they make it, and decide… “If they made it, so will I!” Even if they can clearly see the signage or barricade, not everyone perceives that the situation is currently dangerous to them without some additional source of confirmation or past experience with a similar situation. There is also our basic homing instinct. The phrase “Come he** or high water” comes to mind, and it applies quite nicely to this topic.

People in general know they should not drive through flooded areas. But what needs to be considered is the possibility that the decision to do so is not always because of stupidity or irrational thinking. Those working in emergency management need to more fully understand how humans perceive and process imminent threats in order to develop better strategies to help save lives.

January 25, 2012 – Tornado Surveys

25 January 2012 David Reimer 1 Comment

NOTE: Storm Surveys are still on-going and additional events will be added to this page as they are received.

Austin, Texas Tornado

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR NORTHEAST AUSTIN TX...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS
MORNING IN THE AREA ALONG SPRINGDALE ROAD IN NORTHEAST AUSTIN.  THE
FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED...

EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012
EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0
EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3221/-97.6536 AT 258 AM
EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES:   30.3381/-97.6551 AT 305 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.14
DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 50

THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF COMMERCIAL PARK DRIVE
AND OLD MANOR ROAD...WITH RADAR INDICATING A TOUCHDOWN TIME NEAR
2:58 AM. DAMAGE CONTINUED NORTH THROUGH AN INDUSTRIAL PARK...THEN
ACROSS U.S. 290...BEFORE ENTERING THE WALNUT PLACE SUBDIVISION.
FURTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL...
WITH TREES ON THE EAST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL LAYING DOWN TOWARD THE
WEST AND CONVERGING WITH THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES.  DEBRIS WAS NOTED
ALONG FERGUSON LANE...WITH THE TORNADO PATH ENDING JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF FERGUSON LANE AND SANSOM ROAD.;

Courtesy of City of Austin Homeland Security and Emergency Management – Tornado Track Map

San Antonio, Texas Tornado

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR SOUTHWEST SAN ANTONIO TX...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE AREA ALONG DEER PARK (STREET) IN SOUTHWEST SAN
ANTONIO.  THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED...

EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012
EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0
EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 29.4556/-98.6645 AT 415 AM
EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES:   29.4545/-98.6603
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 0.27
DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 30

THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF DEER PARK AND RICHLAND
HILLS DRIVE...AND CONTINUED ALONG DEER PARK TO THE INTERSECTION OF
DEER PARK AND LEANDER.  THE PRIMARY DAMAGE WAS A CARPORT BEING
THROWN INTO A HOME AND CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.

Estimated Tornado Track (This was created using the damage survey. This meant to only be an estimation of the exact track of the tornado.)

Pearland, Texas Tornado

Pearland, TX Damaging Wind and Tornado Track (From NWS Houston)

THE SURVEY TEAM FOUND A SWATH OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE
BEGINNING AROUND HATFIELD ROAD AND EXTENDED EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
2 MILES WHICH CONSISTED OF FENCES BLOWN DOWN AND SPORADIC TREE
DAMAGE. THE DAMAGE SWATH WAS BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/4 MILE WIDE.
WITHIN THAT SWATH IT WAS DETERMINED THAT A SHORT LIVED TORNADO
ALSO TOUCHED DOWN AT HIGHWAY 35 AND PLUM STREET. A CHEVRON
STATION HAD ITS ITS GAS PUMP AWNING DESTROYED AND THE BUSINESS TO
THE SOUTH OF PLUM STREET HAD ITS ROOF PEELED BACK. TORNADO PATH
WAS APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS LONG AND WAS 75 YARDS WIDE. IT WAS
RATED AN EF-0 WITH 65 TO 85 MPH WINDS.

Brenham, Texas Tornado

STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE TOWN OF BRENHAM
EXTENDING TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF FM 50 TO NEAR INDEPENDENCE.
THIS EVENT WAS FROM APPROXIMATELY 700 AM TO 725 AM. WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 AND 75 MPH WHICH DOWNED POWERLINES AND
NUMEROUS TREES. THE DAMAGE WAS SPORADIC AND NOT CONTINUOUS. THE
ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS ALSO DROPPED A TORNADO DOWN WEST OF
COUNTY ROAD 50 JUST TO THE NORTH OF BRENHAM MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND
TRAVELED EASTWARD TO THE INTERSECTION OF FM262 AND COUNTY ROAD 65.
THIS TORNADO DESTROYED SEVERAL METAL OUTBUILDINGS AND REMOVED THE
ROOF FROM A BARN. IT ALSO PRODUCED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE
AND SNAPPED NUMEROUS LARGE TREES. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF-0
WITH ESTIMATED 85 MPH WINDS. DAMAGE PATH WAS 2.5 MILES LONG AND 50
YARDS WIDE.

Caldwell, Texas Tornado

EVENT TIME…6:43 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF1 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…90 to 100
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0

AN EF1 TORNADO CUT A DAMAGE SWATH THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF DEANVILLE TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF CALDWELL. DAMAGE APPEARED TORNADIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA WITH NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONE HOUSE WAS PUSHED OFF A CINDER BLOCK BASE THEN DRAGGED ALONG A CURVED PATH FOR ABOUT 100 FEET. A FEED TRAILER WAS LIFTED OVER A FENCE THEN ROLLED ABOUT 150 FEET. SEVERAL SHEDS AND BARNS WERE DESTROYED. STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE ALSO FOUND IN THE AREA.

Madison County, Texas Tornado

EVENT TIME…8:00 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…65 to 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH… 1/3 MILE
DAMAGE WIDTH… 50 YARDS

TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG A NARROW PATH. BARN DESTROYED WITH TIN FROM ROOF FANNED OUT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND THROWN IN SOME CASES ABOUT 200 YARDS. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO HOME. STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE ALSO FOUND IN THE AREA.

Huntsville, Texas Tornadoes

EVENT TIME…9:06 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…65 to 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH… 0.36 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH… 50 YARDS

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT CAR DEALERSHIP, LIFTED METAL AWNING AND MOVED IT 100 YARDS AWAY ON TOP OF TWO CARS. THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO THE TWO CARS.

EVENT TIME…9:10 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…65 to 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH… 50 YARDS
DAMAGE WIDTH… 25 YARDS

TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN A RESIDENTIAL SECTION OF HUNTSVILLE CAUSING SIGINIFICANT TREE DAMAGE. ONE OF THE TREES DID FALL ON A NEARBY HOUSE CAUSING SOME ROOF DAMAGE. TREES IN THE AREA WERE BLOWN DOWN IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS GIVING INDICATION OF A STRONG CIRCULATION IN THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN THE HUNSTVILLE AREA WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY. THERE WAS ONE INJURY AT SAM HOUSTON STATE UNIVERSITY FROM A FALLING TREE LIMB.

Houston NWS: Huntsville, TX Tornado Track

Damage Photos from Anderson County

25 January 2012 David Reimer 1 Comment

These photos were sent to us by Jeremy Davis from Palestine, Texas. He writes that he took these photos just north of Palestine, Texas near the Cayuga/Bethel area. He also says to disregard the camera’s date, that it was incorrect.

North Texas Lakes Rising!

25 January 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

: National Weather Service in Fort Worth: Graphical representation of rising lake levels.

This information comes from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth…

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

          ....NORTH TEXAS LAKES ARE ON THE RISE...

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY EVENT OF THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BROUGHT SOME
SIGNIFICANT RECHARGE TO THE LAKES IN NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS
AVERAGED 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE                LAKE ELEVATION GAIN THROUGH 3PM WEDNESDAY

GRAPEVINE           3.1 FEET
LEWISVILLE          1.8 FEET
JOE POOL            2.7 FEET
LAVON               2.5 FEET
RAY HUBBARD         1.4 FEET
RAY ROBERTS         1.5 FEET
ARLINGTON           5.4 FEET
EAGLE MOUNTAIN      2.2 FEET
BRIDGEPORT          1.3 FEET
POSSUM KINGDOM      1.2 FEET
GRANBURY            3.6 FEET
BARDWELL            2.2 FEET
RICHLAND CHAMBERS   0.5 FEET
CEDAR CREEK         0.5 FEET
WHITNEY             1.5 FEET

Morning Rain Totals

25 January 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Rainfall totals through 11 AM

This graphic came from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and shows radar estimated rainfall totals through 11 AM this morning. Please realize that the actual rain totals could vary from location to location, but this is the overall average. While the new drought outlook wont be released until next week, I think its safe to say some locations in North Texas are officially out of drought conditions. Just looking at a few lake levels across Dallas, it looks like Joe Pool Lake and Mountain Creek Lake are actually one to two feet above their normal values. It will take several days for run-off to make it to area lakes and some rivers will remain in flood through the weekend.

Like I said over on our Facebook and Twitter pages, we really didn’t expect the amount of severe weather we ended up with. Short term data, even at 9 PM last night, suggested we would face some severe weather threat, but not the widespread nature we saw this morning. That goes to show you how difficult it can be to forecast severe weather during the cool season when you have several factors that cannot be determined until the event begins. We will have more on this morning’s severe weather in a discussion later tonight. We’re looking at data from this morning to find out what ingredients were stronger then expected. In addition, we’ll also post damage surveys as they are released by the National Weather Service.