Mesoscale Discussion #91

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
   OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 022144Z - 022345Z

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00-01Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING.
   INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   HOWEVER...A WINDOW WILL EXIST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23-00Z. 

   WV AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER JET STREAK FROM SRN AZ
   THROUGH SRN AND ERN NM WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
   AND SRN ROCKIES. MID-UPPER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
   FEATURE AND WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PROMOTING
   DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN INTO THE TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES. THIS AREA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF GREATER MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY ACROSS W-CNTRL AND WRN TX...AND AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 

   LLJ IS STRENGTHENING OVER WRN TX WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD DESTABILIZATION. STORMS
   SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
   OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND WRN OK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES NWD WITH TIME. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
   LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME OF
   THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS. A WINDOW MAY
   EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF
   GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AND BEFORE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS.

   ..DIAL.. 02/02/2012

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...