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Today’s Severe Weather Threat
The Storm Prediction Center maintains their standard slight risk of severe weather for southeast Texas, but as the visible satellite image shows, widespread cloud cover has remained in place across the affected areas this afternoon. The slight risk extends from Bay City on the Texas Coast, northeast to College Station, and east to the Louisiana State line near San Augustine.
As you can see on this surface based instability graphic, there really is no instability within the severe weather risk zone. There is over 2,500 joules per kilogram (J/Kg) of SBCAPE, but that’s down in a capped region where thunderstorms will not likely develop. Simply put, instability is too low to support widespread severe weather thanks to the cloud cover. Still, an isolated severe storm is possible with hail up to quarter size and strong outflow winds being the main threats.
Cooler weather on Thursday and Friday
As the storm system rerepsonsible for today’s storms across East Texas moves east, a northerly flow will set up over Texas. That will help bring in cooler and drier air for your Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will be a tad cooler then on Wednesday. The Panhandle will struggle to reach 50° with North Texas and the Hill Country approaching 60°. Closer to the coast, temperatures should reach around 70°. While those temperatures are cooler, they’re still near seasonal high temperatures and should still ‘warm’ after this past weekend.
Next storm system moves in on Saturday
Models are consistent in bringing our next storm system into the state on Friday Night into Saturday, but diverge from there. The 12Z GFS and Euro are suggestive of a shortwave coming through in a weakened state. If that solution was to verify, we would receive rainfall amounts between a quarter and half an inch. The 12Z NAM is showing a closed core upper level low running about twelve hours slower then the GFS. If the NAM’s solution were to verify, we would likely receive much more rainfall. For now, we’ll wait for consistency and play the rainfall amounts conservative. Temperatures will depend on which solution verifies. For now it appears temperatures will be a tad below average, so a cool, rainy day is in store.
Temperatures on Sunday and Monday should return to seasonal average with highs in the 50s to 60s. Temperatures will be higher on Monday as a southeasterly flow resumes across Texas. Our next storm system appears to take shape to our west, which could result in some rain/storm chances just beyond the period.