Archive for March 22nd, 2012

Severe Weather Risk for the ARKLATEX later Today

Published on Thursday, 22 March 2012 10:09

David Reimer

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[caption id="attachment_6882" align="aligncenter" width="600" caption="Chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point"][/caption]

This graphic shows the probability of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point (such as a house) this afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard risk of severe weather, meaning a 15% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point, for the ARKLATEX region.

This severe weather threat would likely come between 4 PM and 9 PM in the form of a line of thunderstorms from Southeast Oklahoma to just south of the Red River into Texas. This threat will depend greatly on how much clearing there is this afternoon. If rain/clouds hang in tough, instability will not be able to form and the severe weather threat will be low. If clouds are able to break up and instability is able to build in, the severe weather threat could become locally enhanced.

Once again, the affected zones are actually pretty localized. If we are able to get clearing this afternoon, I’m most concerned about the ARKLATEX region as wind shear will be pretty favorable for organized thunderstorms and some severe weather. If the clouds don’t clear, then the threat will be greatly limited. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat, but a tornado or two is not out of the question if instability is able to build in.

If it becomes obvious that clouds will clear out, I’ll be out chasing in the ARKLATEX region this evening and will have live video available.