Archive for May, 2012
Tropical Storm Alberto stronger then first estimated
- Published on Saturday, 19 May 2012 18:28
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
This is a supplemental update to the discussion posted earlier this afternoon. It looks like Alberto is a tad more organized then we first thought this afternoon. That doesn’t change the intensity or track forecasts as the system was likely this strong earlier. Here is the official update from the National Hurricane Center. Here is our afternoon discussion.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 650 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 ...SHIP INDICATES ALBERTO IS STRONGER... REPORTS FROM A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PRESSURE DATA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 MPH...95 KM/H. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. SUMMARY OF 650 PM...2250 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 77.9W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Develops off South Carolina Coast
- Published on Saturday, 19 May 2012 14:51
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
[caption id="attachment_8375" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="Visible Satellite Image at 3:30 PM EDT"]
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This sattilite image was taken at 3:30 PM EDT/2:30 PM CDT of what has now been designated as our first tropical storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The National Hurricane Center has determined this system has developed a warm-core low pressure system and is organized enough to be designated a tropical system. The system is still disorganized for a tropical system as most of the convection is displaced to the northwest of the center of circulation. You can notice the center with the wind barbs. It is possible that the center will reform under the heaviest convection closer to the coast. This is fairly common with weak tropical systems.
This piece of text comes from an internal National Hurricane Center source that shows that we do indeed have Tropical Storm Alberto with 40 knot sustained winds and a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars.
[caption id="attachment_8377" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="TS Alberto: 18Z Model Tracks"]
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Here are the latest tracks coming in from the weather models. Alberto is expected to slowly move south over the next day before eventually being picked up by a trough and pushed north. At this point, models suggest that the center of circulation will pass fairly close to the barrier islands of South Carolina and North Carolina and then move just east of the mid-Atlantic. Since this system is weak and disorganized, most of the convection will likely be displaced from the center, so in reality it won’t matter unless the storm becomes more organized with a tendency for convection to become more relegated to the center.
Atmospheric ingredients don’t favor rapid intensification and model guidance maintains Alberto as a weak Tropical Storm. We’ll bring you the National Hurricane Center advisories when they are issued.
Severe Weather Risk returns to NW TX/E. TX Panhandle
- Published on Saturday, 19 May 2012 02:01
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
This graphic shows the new severe weather outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center for May 19, 2012. This shows the probability of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point (such as your house) during the afternoon and evening hours of May 19. I’ll post the overall risks/locations in bullet style to make it easier to read.
- Brown Shaded Zone: 5 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location (Low Severe Weather Risk)
- Yellow Shaded Zone: 15 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location (Standard Severe Weather Risk)
- Red Shaded Zone: 30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location (Elevated Severe Weather Risk)
5/11/2012 – Red Oak, Texas Sub-Severe Storm
- Published on Wednesday, 16 May 2012 02:27
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
1/2012 – Red Oak, Texas Sub-Severe Thunderstorm
This day wasn’t supposed to be a chase day, but when a severe thunderstorm developed unexpectedly about thirty minutes to his northwest, David Reimer couldn’t resist the opportunity to get some storm photography. By the time the storms reached David, they were well below severe limits, but still provided a photography opportunity just minutes from his house.
National Radar Composite
Rain Totals: Next 7 Days
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