The Storm Prediction Center has placed eastern portions of North Texas and the Hill Country in a standard risk of severe weather due to the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms to form later this afternoon and evening along the dryline. The standard severe weather risk, shown in yellow, means there is a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any given point, such as your house. The black hatched region denotes an area where very large hail is an increased possibility. Please note this severe risk does include the western portions of the D/FW Metroplex.
Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop between 5 and 7 PM between an Abilene and Wichita Falls line, with other isolated storms possible further south. There is some indication by the latest model guidance that a complex of thunderstorms may develop northwest of Fort Worth and possibly approach the western sections of the D/FW metroplex by 9 to 10 PM. These storms would hopefully be weakening by the time that occured, but it’s something to keep in mind if you live in the western parts of D/FW.
I’ll be chasing this afternoon and plan on positioning myself between Graham and Wichita Falls. I’ll post a chase update a little later this morning!