12 PM Severe Weather Update

Published on Monday, 11 June 2012 12:09

David Reimer

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[caption id="attachment_8412" align="aligncenter" width="580" caption="6/11/2012 1630Z Severe Weather Outlook"][/caption]

This graphic shows the probability of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point later this afternoon and evening. The orange color is where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a standard risk of severe weather, meaning a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. High resolution model guidance is developing isolated thunderstorms roughly from Eastland northward to Wichita Falls by 6 PM. There is some question about how widespread storms will become due to a strong capping inversion in place, however many weather models do develop isolated thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will be isolated, but could be quite severe. In fact, it looks like instability values will support the possibility of very large hail, possibly larger then baseballs in the strongest storms.

Storms will be slowly move east (with deviant storm motions possible with left/right turning supercells). The strongest storms will likely produce hail larger then baseballs along with a secondary threat of damaging microbursts and a brief tornado possible. After a few hours, the storms may congeal into a larger complex of thunderstorms. If that occurs, the threat for a more damaging widespread wind event would increase. This is when the storms may try to move into the D/FW Metroplex. The threat of large hail would also exist with those storms. In addition, prolific amounts of cloud to ground lightning would also be likely. They would be thunderstorms after all!

I’ll be heading northwest of Fort Worth in a few hours in anticipation of intercepting storms once they develop west of D/FW. I’ll post a link to my live video stream when I activate it later this afternoon.