Archive for June 12th, 2012
12:30 PM Severe Weather Update
- Published on Tuesday, 12 June 2012 12:33
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
Elevated Severe Weather Risk (Red Shading): 30 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.
Standard Severe Weather Risk (Yellow/Orange Shading): 15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.
Low Severe Weather Risk (Brown Shading): 5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.
Threats across Texas Hill Country and North Texas: Baseball size hail and destructive winds over 70 MPH with activity this afternoon. Another batch of storms possible later this evening with a hail/wind threat.
Threats with evening storms in West Texas: Isolated tornadoes, hail larger then baseballs, damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH
Discussion:
As mentioned in this morning’s blog update, I felt it likely that the Storm Prediction Center would extend the elevated risk of severe weather further south and east once model data agreed on an outcome. That has happened at the elevated risk of severe weather now runs all the way from eastern New Mexico, across much of West Texas into the Texas Hill Country, and then parts of Southeast Texas. Confidence is highest that several rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, will impact areas in the elevated risk areas. A standard severe weather risk surrounds the elevated risk, where severe weather is also possible.
One complex of thunderstorms is already ongoing at discussion time just east of Abilene with very large hail and damaging winds. This complex of storms will continue to move southeast and likely affect the Interstate 35 corridor within a few hours. Based on projected instability amounts, the severe weather threat will continue with that batch of storms. Additional thunderstorms will form across eastern New Mexico and West Texas later this afternoon. These storms will likely be supercellular in nature with all modes of severe weather possible. They will organize into a complex of storms and once again, move southeast, providing another round of storms for the Texas Hill Country overnight. Severe weather will also be possible with those storms.
Tuesday, June 12 Severe Weather Outlook
- Published on Tuesday, 12 June 2012 04:19
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
6/12/2012 06Z Severe Weather Outlook
Elevated Severe Weather Risk (Red Shading): 30 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.
Standard Severe Weather Risk (Yellow/Orange Shading): 15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.
Low Severe Weather Risk (Brown Shading): 5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.
Threats with afternoon/early evening storms in West Texas: Isolated tornadoes, hail larger then baseballs, damaging winds around 65 MPH.
Threats with evening storms in West Texas as they congeal into a line/complex and push east: Destructive winds in excess of 80 MPH, hail up to golfball size.
Discussion:
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a large severe weather risk for Tuesday, with locations from the Texas/New Mexico border all the way east to Louisiana included. As of the early morning outlook, the highest severe weather probabilities have been placed over the southern Texas Panhandle and West Texas where supercell thunderstorms will develop by the late afternoon hours. These storms will be capable of producing isolated tornadoes and very large hail. During the evening, storms will congeal into a squall line or mesoscale convective system (MCS, a fancy term for complex of storms). Once this occurs, the threat for widespread damaging winds will increase along with a continuation of the large hail threat. This complex is expected to push southeast towards the Texas Hill Country and possibly North Texas. There is uncertainty on the exact track of the storm complex, whether it will track further south into the Texas Hill Country or further north into North Texas. With that in mind, I do expect the elevated severe weather probabilities to be extended eastward in later outlooks. The complex of storms should be weakening by the time it approaches Interstate 35 on Wednesday morning.
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