12:30 PM Severe Weather Update

Published on Tuesday, 12 June 2012 12:33

David Reimer

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Elevated Severe Weather Risk (Red Shading): 30 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.

Standard Severe Weather Risk (Yellow/Orange Shading): 15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.

Low Severe Weather Risk (Brown Shading): 5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.

Threats across Texas Hill Country and North Texas: Baseball size hail and destructive winds over 70 MPH with activity this afternoon. Another batch of storms possible later this evening with a hail/wind threat.

Threats with evening storms in West Texas: Isolated tornadoes, hail larger then baseballs, damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH

Discussion: 

As mentioned in this morning’s blog update, I felt it likely that the Storm Prediction Center would extend the elevated risk of severe weather further south and east once model data agreed on an outcome. That has happened at the elevated risk of severe weather now runs all the way from eastern New Mexico, across much of West Texas into the Texas Hill Country, and then parts of Southeast Texas. Confidence is highest that several rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, will impact areas in the elevated risk areas. A standard severe weather risk surrounds the elevated risk, where severe weather is also possible.

One complex of thunderstorms is already ongoing at discussion time just east of Abilene with very large hail and damaging winds. This complex of storms will continue to move southeast and likely affect the Interstate 35 corridor within a few hours. Based on projected instability amounts, the severe weather threat will continue with that batch of storms. Additional thunderstorms will form across eastern New Mexico and West Texas later this afternoon. These storms will likely be supercellular in nature with all modes of severe weather possible. They will organize into a complex of storms and once again, move southeast, providing another round of storms for the Texas Hill Country overnight. Severe weather will also be possible with those storms.