Tuesday, June 12 Severe Weather Outlook

Published on Tuesday, 12 June 2012 04:19

David Reimer

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Elevated Severe Weather Risk (Red Shading): 30 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.

Standard Severe Weather Risk (Yellow/Orange Shading): 15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.

Low Severe Weather Risk (Brown Shading): 5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.

Threats with afternoon/early evening storms in West Texas: Isolated tornadoes, hail larger then baseballs, damaging winds around 65 MPH.

Threats with evening storms in West Texas as they congeal into a line/complex and push east: Destructive winds in excess of 80 MPH, hail up to golfball size.

Discussion: 

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a large severe weather risk for Tuesday, with locations from the Texas/New Mexico border all the way east to Louisiana included. As of the early morning outlook, the highest severe weather probabilities have been placed over the southern Texas Panhandle and West Texas where supercell thunderstorms will develop by the late afternoon hours. These storms will be capable of producing isolated tornadoes and very large hail. During the evening, storms will congeal into a squall line or mesoscale convective system (MCS, a fancy term for complex of storms). Once this occurs, the threat for widespread damaging winds will increase along with a continuation of the large hail threat. This complex is expected to push southeast towards the Texas Hill Country and possibly North Texas. There is uncertainty on the exact track of the storm complex, whether it will track further south into the Texas Hill Country or further north into North Texas. With that in mind, I do expect the elevated severe weather probabilities to be extended eastward in later outlooks. The complex of storms should be weakening by the time it approaches Interstate 35 on Wednesday morning.