[<strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>captionstrong> id="attachment_10554" align="aligncenter" <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>widthstrong>="595"]strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>widthstrong>=”595″ height=”330″ /> Monday’s Severe Weather Outlook[/<strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>captionstrong>]

While no formal <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>severestrong> weather <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>riskstrong> has been issued for Monday, I’ve outlined an area where the Storm Prediction Center believes there is a <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>riskstrong> of strong to <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>severestrong> <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>stormsstrong> <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>on Mondaystrong>. This <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>riskstrong> extends along and east of a line from Paris-Dallas-Waco-Bastrop-Luling-Victoria and generally from 5 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>PMstrong> Monday through 12 AM Tuesday. All modes of <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>severestrong> weather may exist (quarter size hail, 60 MPH winds, isolated tornado). The main upper level energy with this system will be passing north of <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>Texasstrong>, thus there is uncertainty how many <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>stormsstrong> will be able to develop. We’ll be able to have a better idea on Sunday.

[<strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>captionstrong> id="attachment_10555" align="aligncenter" <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>widthstrong>="595"]strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>widthstrong>=”595″ height=”446″ /> 4 KM 18Z NAM – 6 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>PMstrong> Monday Instability Values[/<strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>captionstrong>]

[<strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>captionstrong> id="attachment_10556" align="aligncenter" <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>widthstrong>="595"]strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>widthstrong>=”595″ height=”446″ /> 18Z NAM: Surface pressures and precipitation at 9 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>PMstrong> Monday[/<strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>captionstrong>]

Instability values ahead (southeast) of the cold front are going to be sufficient to support organized thunderstorms but the lack of any strong surface low pressure and the upper level energy passing north of <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>Texasstrong> will likely limit the storm threat and keep <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>stormsstrong> more isolated. Any <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>stormsstrong> that develop, especially in East <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>Texasstrong>, will have the potential to be strong. If the upper level energy passes further south, the threat for <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>severestrong> thunderstorms would increase.

David Reimer

David Reimer