Some brutally cold air up in Canada that has been building for some time is about to be released on the Great Plains over the weekend. For West Texas, models are in agreement that it’s coming, but not in agreement yet on the timing, or on how much moisture will be available courtesy of an upper air disturbance, however even the medium range models now are coming around to the idea of a faster frontal passage through West Texas than previously thought. Perhaps as early as Saturday night in the Panhandle, and then through the rest of the area on Sunday. The above graphic from the National Weather Service in Lubbock illustrates this nicely!
So will it snow? Well, it might, or we might just get a cold rain or a rain/snow mix. Right now it appears the best shot at precipitation is confined to the Panhandle and northwestern South Plains, but there is still enough uncertainty yet on amount of moisture and track of the disturbance to narrow it down completely. The below graphic from the National Weather Service in Amarillo shows the current thinking on precipitation.
Unlike our last little cold snap, this one is going to stick around for a little while, likely the end of the week before we start getting a notable warm up. Monday will likely not get out of the 40s in all of West Texas with the exception of Abilene/San Angelo/Sonora which should be in the 50s. Warmup will be a bit quicker for those locations, but very slow for the Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin over next week.
More later on potential winter precipitation as we get closer to the event and the details become clearer…