Daily Archives: December 6, 2012

SNOW chances for North Central Texas

Potential for a light dusting of snow continues to remain in the forecast for areas in north central Texas on Monday.  There is still a lot of uncertainty, and local forecasters are not completely ready to say for certain it will happen, but it’s worth saying THERE IS A CHANCE!  –> insert happy dance <–

For several days now, the European forecast model has been consistently showing at least some form of snow or mix in our area after passage of the front.  The forecast graphic below should be very familiar by now since it’s really not changed very much.  The sleet/freezing line is still traversing north central Texas.  Precip in the panhandle would be in the form of snow since it is quite far behind the freezing line.  For north Texas, the precip would most likely be a wintry mix and/or light snow depending upon your proximity to the freezing line…if this forecast pans out.

am – Noon on Monday 

 

The GFS has been rather stingy with any form of precipitation over north central Texas up until the past day or so; however,  it really began catching up today and is beginning to follow the Euro’s trend with precipitation locations and timing.  The GFS graphic from last night is specifically a snowfall graphic, unlike the one above which simply depicts precipitation with no discrimination as to what type.  That purple blotch right there may not be a very big blotch on the map, but it’s a blotch of HOPE for all of those who have been wanting to see some fluffy white stuff!  I do have to let you know that today’s GFS snowfall graphic is not showing this same blotch on the map…but don’t lose all hope as these things tend to flip flop back and forth with all forecast models.

am until Noon 

Last but not least, I’ve included the updated Graphicast published this morning by the National Weather Service office in Ft. Worth.  While they are not even close to being 100% confident that we will get snow up here, they felt there was enough of a chance to mention it.

Graphic courtesy of the National Weather Service – Ft. Worth, TX

Cold and Winter Weather on Tap for Sunday 12/09/2012

The cold air I told you about yesterday is still poised to begin arriving in the Texas Panhandle Saturday night, and through the South Plains and Permian Basin early Sunday. Winds behind the front are forecast to be quite gusty, and combine with lows Sunday night in the Panhandle in the teens, and upper 20s for the South Plains, things are going to feel quite brutal after the recent abnormally warm December weather we’ve been enjoying. Highs Sunday may not make it to 40 for the Panhandle and South Plains, while not much more than that in the Permian Basin to the south.

Precipitation chances are looking a little better than yesterday, although not outstanding. The upper disturbance is being depicted as slowing down a bit, and with the earlier frontal passage, appears large scale lift across northwest Texas will be occurring as the front comes through. While drier are will be filtering in behind the front, it appears there may be enough moisture and lift to give us our first taste of snow this season in the Panhandle and even on the South Plains.

At this time, models are depicting the temperature profile to be favorable mostly for snow in the Panhandle, up on the Caprock of the South Plains, and in eastern New Mexico/northwest Permian Basin area. To the east across the rolling plains rain looks more likely at this time, as does south of I20.

Unfortunately, as bad as we need the precipitation, at this time it appears precipitation amounts will be very light, with total snowfall accumulations less than 1″ in most locations, and in many, just flurries,especially toward Midland/Odessa area.

The graphic below from the National Weather Service in Amarillo depicts the best chances for winter precipitation as it appears at this time. Keep in mind this is still an evolving event, and as winter type systems in West Texas often are, can be difficult to forecast much in advance because of all the variables that even minor changes inevitably effect whether we have rain or snow or ice, or nothing at all. I’ll update you again tomorrow as we get closer to the event and confidence in this scenario increases.

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