- Confidence in a Cold Air Outbreak in Texas by Christmas Afternoon is high
- Confidence in light snow occurring in Texas is moderate.
- Confidence WHERE in Texas snow will fall is low.
- Confidence in accumulating snowfall in Texas is low.
- We will begin to get better weather model consistency on Saturday, at least that is the hope.
We’ve been talking about it since last weekend, but even now we still have a great deal of uncertainty about the possible Christmas winter storm. We are confident that there will be another cold air outbreak that will make temperatures quite chilly by Christmas evening (sooner in northern parts of Texas) with some rain possible on Christmas Eve along and east of Interstate 35. By Christmas morning, cooler air will be filtering into Texas. That will allow rain to change over to snow in portions of the Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. Exactly where the rain/snow line sets up is debatable, but certainly not exactly predictable. Remember, we’re still over 84 hours out from this potential event. This storm has not yet made it into the United States Upper Air Network nor has the system entered the range of our high-resolution weather models. Everything you see below will change at least once over the weekend, so be sure to check back for updates. I plan to release my own personal thoughts on the Christmas Event once we get into Saturday and we receive more data about the system. For now, I’m going to post the forecast graphics from several of the National Weather Service offices in the affected regions.