As David mentioned yesterday, we would provide additional details regarding the possibility of a wintery mix that was introduced in our local north Texas forecast yesterday. After additional data was analyzed last night, local forecasters decided to remove that possibility from our forecast grids; however………..they strongly recommended keeping an eye on the system that will be coming through mid-week late Wednesday into Thursday as things could change on a dime. With that said, here’s a brief update on rain chances beginning tonight…and additional rain chances that will arrive mid-week!
Tonight – New Years Eve
Widespread rain is expected to approach the state from the southwest later this evening. The areas predicted to receive the most amount of rain has shifted north and east just a bit; however, most of the state is expected to receive at least some amount of rainfall over the next 48 hours. The graphic below is from the American GFS model with projected rainfall accumulations now through 6am January 1st.
A Canadian cold front will arrive late New Years Eve and progress thru the state during the day Tuesday. The cold air is not expected to arrive until after the rain is ending, so no winter precip is expected on New Years Eve except for the top of the panhandle. That area is currently under a Winter Weather Advisory from 6am Monday – Midnight. David Drummond will have additional details on that later today. Everywhere else, the temps will be above freezing; therefore no winter precip.
After the cold front moving through on Tuesday scours out most of the moisture from the atmosphere, it looks like it will have very little time to recover before another piece of atmospheric energy approaches for Thursday. At least that is what the models are showing now. The problem with models…as our local forecaster was hinting at yesterday afternoon…models sometimes underestimate the available moisture, which could leave us in a precarious situation come Thursday when we still have temps near freezing across central Texas. The forecast graphic below is from the Euro projecting where the rain will be most likely falling around noon on Thursday. As you can see, some of that rainfall is precariously close to and within the 35-32 freezing lines and will need to be monitored. We will continue to watch this closely, but for now, just expect a cold rain with only a minimal chance of freezing precipitation.