**MAP UPDATED: WARNINGS/ADVISORIES EXTENDED NORTH AND EAST**
**WINTER STORM WARNING** ALL OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS in PINK on MAP
**WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES** PERMIAN BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS in PURPLE on Map
Good morning on this chilly morning across most of Texas. Well, first let’s get to what you all want to know….who’s getting snow?
If you live west of I35 and along/south of I20, and north of a San Antonio to Del Rio line, looks like a pretty good chance you’ll see something frozen before this event is over. In fact, some of you already are! The further east you are, the less likely you are going to see anything accumulate however.
Taking a look across Texas, it’s quite chilly this morning, with some upper teens/low 20s seen in the Panhandle, with low 40s seen even on the Gulf Coast. Some lift already ahead of this system as evidenced by the regional radar image, with heavy snow already being reported along I10 in Pecos, and sleet in and west of San Antonio.
The upper level low that we’ve been telling you about that is going to be responsible for all the winter shenanigans is currently seen on satellite water vapor loop just entering northern Mexico, south of Arizona. Meanwhile, a trough is seen continuing to dig south through Arizona in the direction of this low.
Currently, what we are anticipating is as this trough digs south, it will start to interact with this low, and help go ahead and bring it east towards El Paso. At this point, there seems to be some disagreement in the guidance, as some of the models expect this will be then swept to the northeast and eject out into the plains, toward Childress. This is the most likely scenario.
This graphic from the National Weather Service in Lubbock depicts this scenario nicely.
The National Weather Service in Ft. Worth has also produced this nice graphic that give you a good, overall visual idea of what you can expect in your location.
There are however some concerns about how much moisture will come in to play with this system, and how fast it will move northeast. One solution even wants to keep it meandering around West Texas. Should this take longer to eject out, should the trough be deeper than expected, and should we have more moisture to work with are all variables we are looking at, because either of those could indicate even higher snowfall amounts across western Texas than currently forecast. As you can see, even this close to the event, there are still some uncertainties in the forecast.
So how much snow are we expecting?
The higher snowfall accumulations should occur in Southwest Texas, in the higher mountain terrain, and in the plains adjacent to them, where we are currently forecasting at least 8 inches of snow. This also extends north into Southeast New Mexico in the Gualalupe Mountains area.
Forecast amounts should taper off the further east and northeast you go, with 2-4 inches east of the Pecos River, and likely 1-3 inches across the Permian Basin (Midland/Odessa) into eastern New Mexico along the border, and even up into the Southwestern South Plains southwest of Lubbock. Keep in mind any heavier localized snow bands could greatly increase any localized snowfall totals.
As this system moves Northeast, precipitation areas will even be out well to the east of it as well, all along and even south of the I10 corridor, with sleet even being reported this hour around and west of San Antonio. West Central Texas could see 1-3 inches of snow, even as far east as Brownwood and Brady, perhaps even to I35. Frozen precipitation may even been seen in the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex, but little to no accumulations expected that far northeast.
Again, there is at least some potential for higher snowfall totals than forecast in Western Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
When can we expect this?
As I mentioned, some of this is already underway along the I10 corridor, with heavy snow currently reported at Ft. Stockton, and sleet in the San Antonio area and areas west. By 5pm, most of the rest of the area discussed in this forecast could start expecting some form of precipitation, with anything frozen perhaps holding off until after midnight/early morning in the farther eastern/northeastern areas.
Travelers along I20 and I10 corridors: Conditions will become increasingly more hazardous as you go further west. I20 from Midland/Odessa west, and I10 from Sonora westward. Conditions could become particularly bad on I20 west of Pecos, and I10 from Ft. Stockton-westward, and particularly around the I20/I10 interchange area and westward through the mountains in Southwest Texas.
Secondary US Highways across west Texas will also become increasingly hazardous throughout the day and in to tonight, and Farm to Market roads may become unusable in Southwest Texas particularly.
If you live in these affected areas, please be sure to tune into your local weather sources for more detailed information about conditions in your area.