An usually potent heat wave for late September will grip Texas this week as a high pressure aloft takes hold. I’ll start off by saying El Paso, Houston, and Brownsville are all in jeopardy of hitting or exceeding the previous record highs for this date. High temperatures this afternoon will peak at least in the 90s this afternoon. North Texas, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and South Texas will all make it into the upper 90s. Deep South Texas will top out in the triple digits today, with Laredo and McAllen reaching 101-103 degrees. I can’t rule out a spot or two in North and Central Texas briefly hitting 100°F. Aren’t I just a glimmer of good news this morning? (I’m a fall fan…)
With surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s the humidity will be downright oppressive. Heat index values will top out in the between 101-105° this afternoon along and east of Interstate 35 – including all the major cities from the Red River south to Mexico. Houston, Victoria, Corpus Christi, Laredo, McAllen, and Brownsville may see heat index values of 106°F to 111°F during peak heating today. This kind of heat isn’t unusual to see during July and August, but it is unusual so late in September.
Unfortunately the high pressure aloft will keep rain chances downright slim to done through Thursday across the state. I can’t rule out a few popup showers this afternoon, but by far most locals will remain hot and dry. We should start to see scattered afternoon rain chances return to the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas on Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms start to make a comeback on Friday. An upper level pattern change should result in a more unsettled weather pattern by the weekend. That change should bring more storm chances and hopefully cooler weather. We’ll have to keep an eye on the Saturday Night to Tuesday timeframe of next week as we may see a favorable setup for heavier rains in parts of West Texas.