A compact piece of upper level energy is moving east over North Texas this morning. The result has been scattered showers producing light to moderate rain. For the most part rain totals have remained below one inch. An exception is southwest of Waco between McGregor and Gatesville where heavier amounts of two to three inches have fallen overnight. A flash flood warning is in effect for McGregor, Crawford, Oglesby, to locations east of Gatesville. This is a case where we had a heavier patch of rain ‘train’ or move over the same area for several hours. These situations are where localized flooding can develop. The same will be true in the coming days as rain chances increase with the approach of our next upper level storm system.
Let’s start off with the temperature forecast for the next five days. Unlike most of October the temperature aspect of the forecast won’t be the primary focus. With rain chances and increased cloudiness temperatures during the afternoon hours much of the upcoming week will remain near seasonal averages. That means high temperatures will range from the lower 60s up into the lower 80s. Daily variations in the temperature forecast will occur where higher rain chances exist. Overnight low temperatures will tend to remain near or above average due to cloudiness and high moisture content in the atmosphere. Overall it should feel much more like fall this week, but it’ll come with precipitation chances.
Today may actually feature the lowest chances of rain for the next several days across Texas. That isn’t to say we don’t have rain chances – we do, but we’ll be in between storm systems. The compact upper level wave moving over North Texas this morning will continue moving east today. Drier air across Northeast and East Texas will result in precipitation chances rapidly decreasing later this morning. Focus will then shift out in the Borderland for this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms are possible across Southeast Texas, South-Central Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, into Far West Texas this afternoon.
Like yesterday we do have a marginal risk of severe weather across the Borderland and Pecos Valley. We did not have severe weather in Texas yesterday, but southern New Mexico had a few supercells develop. One of those storms dropped hail larger than the size of golfballs and caused substantial vehicle damage. Wind shear values will be comparatively lower than yesterday this afternoon, but the atmosphere should become more unstable. A few severe storms may develop this afternoon and organize into supercells. Should that occur a localized risk of large hail, damaging winds, and even a isolated tornado will be possible. Widespread severe weather is not expected and the threat will quickly diminish near and after sunset.
Precipitation chances quickly increase tonight as a strong upper level wave moves into New Mexico. The highest rain chances tonight will be in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, western sections of the Big Country and Concho Valley, into Southwest Texas and the Borderland. We may see a fairly widespread rain shield develop. Most rain will be on the moderate side, but heavier cells will produce localized swaths of heavier rain. Severe weather is not expected with tonight’s activity. If we see heavier rains move over the same locations for a couple of hours a localized flooding threat may develop.
Over the next five days much of Texas, if not all, should receive some rainfall. Rainfall totals will vary from a few tenths of an inch up to nearly three inches of rain. Widespread flash flooding is not expected at this time. Localized flooding will be possible where we see heavier rains fall over a period of a couple hours. As usual the rain projection map is on a regionalized scale. There will be folks that receive lower amounts and those that receive higher amounts over a region compared to what is shown on the graphic.
The rain shield will slowly progress east during the day Sunday. High rain chances will continue in the same locations at Saturday Night, but will expand east into Northwest Texas, all of the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, into western sections of North Texas, Central Texas, South Texas, into the Middle Texas Coast and South Texas. The higher rain chances for the Interstate 35 corridor will be after late morning through the day. Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible with heavier cells.
High rain chances on Sunday Night include Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, South-Central Texas, Central Texas, North Texas, into the Brazos Valley and East Texas. Scattered showers will remain possible across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, into the Rio Grande Valley. Once again most precipitation should remain moderate, but localized heavier cells with minor flooding are possible.
Rain chances slowly decrease after Monday – but remain thanks due to an unsettled weather pattern. There remains uncertainty on the potential for another storm system by mid-week. Should that solution pan out precipitation chances will need to be increased from Tuesday onward into late next week. Temperatures should remain near seasonal averages thanks to cloud cover and rain chances into late next week.
Also of note – daylight savings time ends tonight! You’ll get an extra hour of sleep (or work) tonight!