Temperatures through the weekend will be warm and definitely supportive of spring break activities. We’ll see high temperatures range from the middle 70s to lower 90s across Texas today. The same is expected on Saturday, although we’ll keep the temperature spectrum in the middle 70s to middle 80s range tomorrow. Sunday is when we turn up the thermostat as high temperatures climb into the upper 70s to the lower 90s. Most of the state’s population will be in the 80s (along and east of Interstate 35). We’re going to see 90s in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, into the Borderland. Considering we had a year without a winter its only fitting we have late April-like temperatures in the middle of March. Unlike the 80s and 90s we saw back in January and February, these readings aren’t the record-breaking ridiculous heat we saw back then.

Light rain showers may occur at times today into Saturday across Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and in the higher elevations around Alpine way out west. Appreciable rainfall is not expected and most folks won’t see measurable rain. Those who do end up under one of the rain showers could see up to two-tenths of an inch of rain. A more substantial storm system is progged to impact our weather around Thursday of next week.

The upper-air pattern over the past ten days has been one that has kept our weather quiet in the southern United States. That looks to change around Thursday of next week. A deep-digging trough will bring a strong jetstream back to our corner of the country. At the surface that digging trough will help generate a surface low across the Plains. Where that surface low eventually develops and tracks will determine what weather we have to deal with in Texas. The above-graphic shows an ensemble approach of where the GEFS thinks a surface low may develop. Notice that we have ‘lows’ from Nebraska all the way south to the Texas Panhandle. The low’s southward-extent will determine how much (if any) severe weather risk we deal with next week. We’re heading into late March, so we definitely need to be on the lookout for severe weather potential. On the west-side of the dryline we will likely see a significant fire weather risk develop in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are possible next Thursday.