It’s a great morning for many areas of the Southern Plains! As we all know, Texas has been experiencing a historic drought through the last year. Many areas have received beneficial rainfall over the last few months, and the next few days will continue that trend in some areas that need it most. The most recent Drought Monitor, released yesterday morning based on data collected through this past Tuesday, shows that aside from a small section of North Texas and Southeast Oklahoma, most of the Southern Plains is still in a fairly significant drought.

Many of these regions will receive rainfall that will certainly help alleviate the situation over the next several days, but one area in particular will likely be in much better shape by the time the next Drought Monitor is released!

The entire eastern two thirds of Texas and Oklahoma will likely receive quite a bit of much needed rain through the weekend. This graphic, issued at 4:58 CST this morning, shows the forecast rain amounts from today through Wednesday morning. As you can see, the region that is forecast to receive the bulk of the upcoming precipitation is one that badly needs it! We can only hope that areas farther west will also see enough rainfall to put a dent in the drought, but it looks very likely that at least the eastern section of this drought will take a big hit over the next few days.

Now to address the title of this blog post. March is here, and the Midwest found that out right away a week ago, when a devastating tornado outbreak affected states from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. While we’re still over a week out and a lot will change in that time span, there are several indications that the plains states will experience their first true active severe weather pattern by next weekend. The ECMWF, one model we use for medium and long range forecasting, is providing one of these indications.

The 0Z ECMWF at 216 hours shows a shortwave trough moving into the plains (top-left panel, 500 mb heights), with southerly low level winds returning plenty of Gulf moisture well in advance of this system (bottom-left panel, 850 mb streamlines). While we have had several severe weather events in the plains this year, the main limiting factor, as usual for March, has been moisture. With models advertising moisture return beginning as early as Tuesday, moisture will not be a problem if a system like this one should materialize. In addition to the trough nearing the plains at 216 hours, another strong system is evident right on its heels. If a pattern like this one does verify, it would not be difficult to get several days of severe weather in the plains.

The GFS, another model we use regularly at this time frame, shows a similar pattern taking hold in the next 10 days. Shown below is output from the 0Z GFS (run at 6 pm CST last night) valid at 7 pm CDT (note the change for Daylight Savings Time!) on Saturday, March 17th. The top graphic is 500 mb heights and wind speeds. The bottom graphic displays MSLP (surface pressure, essentially), surface winds, and surface dewpoint temperature. Note that these images are valid at the same time as the ECMWF images shown above!

Similarly to what the ECMWF showed, at the moment the GFS is indicating that a trough in the jet stream will impact the Southern and Central Plains by next weekend. While the GFS chart and ECMWF chart do not display data in the same format, they do show similar patterns. What you could not see on the ECMWF but can see on the GFS is the forecast surface dewpoints. The surface low in Eastern Colorado is a classic location for a springtime severe weather event in the plains. With southerly and southeasterly surface flow for days in advance, the GFS shows 60F dewpoints as far north as the southern Nebraska border, and 65F dewpoints all the way to the Red River. It’s easy to see the dryline extending south from the surface low, down through the panhandles. Should this verify, the plains would likely be looking at a significant severe weather event.

It is very important to understand that at this range, much of this is speculation. Features such as dewpoints, dryline placement, and surface low strength and placement are impossible to determine this far out. What we do know is that it looks likely that we will be in an active pattern by next weekend, and that it is the time of year where residents of the plains need to be paying attention to the weather. We’ll post more as details become more clear throughout the next week. Check back frequently for updates, and enjoy the rain if you get any!