Author Archives: David Reimer

Odile weakens to a Tropical Storm; Edouard almost a Major Hurricane in the Atlantic

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What was Major Hurricane Odile has now weakened into a Tropical Storm this evening as it moves northwest over Baja California. While the threat for damaging winds has diminished very heavy rains and major flooding remains a very serious threat across parts of Mexico. Moisture from Odile is moving north this evening into the Southwest United States. Flash Flood Watches are in effect across parts of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and extreme West Texas. Moisture values are in the extreme/unheard range for September across Arizona and the result will likely be flash flooding similar to the event experienced just last week. Moisture from Odile will spread northeast later this week and could bring a chance of rain to other parts of Texas.

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Here is the rainfall forecast through Thursday Evening from the Weather Prediction Center along with the evening advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Odile.

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

…ODILE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…
…STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.6N 112.1W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM NW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS…AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN
JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTA TO BAHIA DE
LOS ANGELES
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H…AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY…AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS…AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.24 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY…AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA.

SURF…SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Meanwhile Hurricane Edouard is only a threat to the fishes and marine interests. Maximum sustained winds are at 110 MPH which is just below major hurricane strength. Edouard is expected to become a major hurricane on Tuesday as the storm moves north/northeast and out to sea. Obviously this system is no threat to Texas or any landmass for that point.

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HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014

…EDOUARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST…
…FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…29.0N 56.9W
ABOUT 520 MI…840 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…963 MB…28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY…FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO…AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB…28.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM AST.

Rain moving into the D/FW Metroplex for Morning Rush Hour

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Pockets of light rain with embedded moderate rain showers will continue to move east/northeast early this morning into North Texas. Based on current extrapolation these showers will move into the core of the D/FW Metroplex by 4:30 to 5:00 AM just in time to make the roads damp for the morning rush hour. The good news is rain amounts will tend to be light with most locations only receiving a trace to five hundreds of an inch through sunrise. No cloud to ground lightning strikes have been detected but I can’t rule out an isolated strike in a heavier core. Please be sure to give yourself a little extra room on the area roads since they could be a little slick.

Isolated showers extend into the Concho Valley and Hill Country and are also moving east/northeast. These showers will also only deposit trace amounts of rain through sunrise. After a beautiful weekend the Gulf of Mexico has opened back up and moisture is flowing north. Hence it’s probably not going to be a particularly pleasant morning with dense overcast and localized fog/mist in spots.

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Meanwhile a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of the Rio Grande Valley will move westward and impact parts of the coast and Harlingen-Brownsville metros this morning. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, and brief gusty winds are possible with this activity as it moves in off the Gulf.

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Light Rain Showers Developing This Morning

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After a beautiful weekend consisting of below average temperatures the Gulf of Mexico has opened back up and moisture is streaming northward. Thanks in part to the returning moisture light rain has developed across parts of our state this morning. The majority of shower activity is occuring in Northwest Texas into the Red River Valley. These scattered showers are moving northeast and for the most part only dropping light rain accumulations.

Rain accumulations through sunrise in areas that receive rain will remain from a trace to below a tenth of an inch. Essentially just enough to wet the grass and back porch. A little word of caution since some roadways could be slick with oil deposits.

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Hurricane Odile Making Landfall near Cabo San Lucas

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Hurricane Odile is currently beginning to make landfall over the southern tip of Baja California very near or right over Cabo San Lucas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 MPH and Odile is a Category 3 Major Hurricane. Based on reports out of Cabo winds have gone nearly calm over the past ten minutes. Damage reports won’t start coming in until daylight most likely, but once the eye passes over and winds switch over to the west a significant storm surge will quickly move in on the coast. This storm caught most media off-guard because of its rather rapid intensification and unexpected track shift to the east.

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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1000 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

…ODILE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS…

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ODILE MADE LANDFALL
AT ABOUT 945 PM PDT…0445 UTC…NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF ODILE AT LANDFALL WAS 125 MPH…205 KM/H…
CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH…144 KM/H…WITH A GUST TO 116
MPH…187 KM/H. THE STATION HAS ALSO REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
959 MB… 28.32 INCHES.

A WEATHER STATION NEAR SANTA ROSA MEXICO HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 87 MPH…140 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 945 PM PDT…0445 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…930 MB…27.47 INCHES

A few reports and photos from social media (iCyclone).

Dangerous Hurricane Odile approaching Baja California

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Hurricane Odile remains a powerful and dangerous hurricane this evening as it approaches Southern Baja California. The hurricane hunters made the long flight from Mississippi earlier today to investigate Odile. They found the hurricane was actually stronger than previously thought last night. Luckily an eyewall replacement cycle took place today which has resulted in wind speeds coming down slightly. Unfortunately that cycle appears to be completing which could result in a bit of an uptick in sustained wind speeds tonight. It really doesn’t matter considering that 100+ MPH winds have been pushing water for over a day now. The large windfield of Odile will likely result in portions of Southern Baja California receiving a potentially catastrophic storm surge with┬ádestructive waves. It is worthy to note that based on the hurricane’s current intensity that this would be the most powerful hurricane to strike the region since records began.

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At 7 PM CDT Hurricane Odile was 90 miles southeast of the southern most tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are 125 MPH with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is 925 millibars or 27.31 inches. Standard atmospheric pressure is 1013 millibars or 29.92 inches. Minor fluctuations in strength are possible tonight before the hurricane starts to weaken on Monday as it moves into cooler waters. Due to the large nature of Odile’s windfield a significant storm surge is expected to impact the coast. Movement will continue to be northwest tonight and Monday with either a direct landfall or a partial eyewall impact expected on the western and southern coastline of Baja California including Cabo San Lucas.

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN EVARISTO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST.  ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NEAR OR OVER
THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ODILE IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
BANDS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...WESTERN
JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

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