



I promise you won’t need to pull up a comfy chair and beverage for this one. I’ll keep it fairly brief! You hear the weather folks using this term all the time…the “atmospheric cap” or “capping inversion”. So what is it?
The cap is a region of warmer air over a layer of cooler air that keeps a lid on convective lifting and can inhibit thunderstorm development. Remember from Thunderstorm 101, warm air from the earth’s surface wants to rise and will continue to rise as long as it’s warmer than its surroundings. Thus, when it reaches a layer of air equal to or greater than it’s temperature at that height, it will no longer rise. Convection, or cloud formation, is then thwarted and unable to develop any further without the aid of other lifting mechanisms such as an approaching frontal boundary or surface heating that exceeds that of the cap.
What causes caps to form? There’s quite a few, but the loss of daytime heating from the earth’s surface is one primary cause. The earth’s surface cools faster than the air above, so you will have warmer air aloft most nights and mornings. Once the sun has a chance to heat the earth’s surface, that heat is reflected back up into the atmosphere heating it as well. As a result, the cap is typically strongest during the night and early part of the day, and weakest in the afternoon during peak daytime heating. That’s when it’s most likely that the cap will break and enable storms to form if there is enough moisture and instability in the atmosphere. Another primary cause is warmer mid-level air masses moving over the cooler ground level air masses. Winds can move across us from different directions at different levels in the atmosphere, and one prevailing wind we have in Texas each summer at the mid-levels is a southwest or westerly wind which brings in that warmer layer of air from the arid regions of Mexico and our southwestern states.
A cap is considered “weak” or “breakable” when there is only a small temperature increase between the air aloft and the air at ground level. Conversely, a cap is strong when there is a large temperature increase in the air aloft over the air at ground level. The cap can be the difference between quiet weather and a severe weather. If the cap HOLDS, it will be a quiet weather day. However, if the cap weakens or BREAKS, daytime convection could explode and produce damaging thunderstorms.
A tornado is defined as a rapidly rotating column of air that blows around a small area of intense low pressure with a circulation that reaches the ground. This circulation may begin within the thunderstorm and work its way down to the surface, or it may begin at the surface and work its way up to the base of the thunderstorm. A majority of tornadoes in North America rotate counterclockwise (cyclonic); however, a few have been seen rotating clockwise and are referred to as anticyclonic.

November 7, 2011 - Tipton, OK tornado
Tornadoes can develop in many parts of the world, but the United States wins the prize for the greatest number of tornadoes reported each year (about 1,000). You would think Kansas would be the state with the largest annual tornado count, but it isn’t! Texas, again, wins that prize with an annual average of 155. Kansas takes second with an annual average of 96; however, they do get the prize for the greatest average number of strong (EF3-EF5) tornadoes. So, while Texas gets more due to sheer square footage, Kansas grows them bigger!
While there isn’t an official “tornado season” recognized in the same manner as Hurricane season, tornadoes are most abundant in spring and early summer during the months of March, April, May and June. This is due to the fact that thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes are more frequent during these months. So, what causes them to form? All tornadoes develop within a thunderstorm…most often within a rotating thunderstorm also known as a “supercell”. We’ll get to the rotating part in just a second. But first, you will recall from our previous article “Thunderstorm 101”, that thunderstorms develop when the atmosphere is unstable, there is an abundance of warm moist air, and there’s something, such as a frontal boundary, to cause the warm moist air to rapidly lift as it collides with colder and drier air.
But for a tornado to develop within a thunderstorm, one extra special ingredient is required…Wind Shear. Before I define wind shear, you will need to first understand that our atmosphere is made up of many layers. Winds can blow from different directions at each layer. Winds also increase in speed with height due to the decreasing effects of friction from the earth’s surface. The prevailing surface winds in Texas tend to blow from the south or southeast. Just above the surface, they tend to blow from the southwest. Another layer above that, they tend to blow from the west. That is wind shear, specifically directional wind shear…winds turning with increasing height above the ground. These winds, turning with increasing height, push on the thunderstorm air mass causing it to start twisting and creating a rotating thunderstorm capable of spinning up a tornado. One way to visualize this would be similar to stirring cream into your morning coffee.
Now that we have all the ingredients, moisture, instability, lift and wind shear, lets talk about the mechanics of tornado formation, or tornadogenesis. Before thunderstorms even develop, wind shear creates an invisible horizontal spinning effect within the lower atmosphere. Several years ago when I attended my first Storm Spotter training session, the instructor presented a PowerPoint slide depicting this as giant horizontal blue tube suspended over a hayfield. He told us if we ever saw one of those giant horizontal blue tubes coming towards us, we needed to run like heck. Obviously, you’ll never see one of those, but just mentally picture that effect in the lower atmosphere in the presence of developing thunderstorms and wind shear.
As the storm’s updrafts begin to form, these updrafts begin to pull and stretch this tube of horizontally spinning air into the updraft. As this column of air is stretched vertically, it begins to rotate even faster. Imagine holding on to both ends of a piece of yarn. Spin the yard around like a jump rope few times to get it rotating, then pull your hands apart and watch the rotation get tighter and faster. Basically that is what happens when the thunderstorm’s updraft catches hold of the tube of horizontally spinning air and stretches it upward. This rising and rotating column of air, typically on the southern end of the storm cell, is known as the mesocyclone. The rotation of the updraft lowers the air pressure within the mesocyclone and acts to further increase the strength of the updraft.
The mesocyclone, however, is still not a tornado. The mesocyclone may produce a feature known as a “Wall Cloud”…a distinct lowering at the base of the thunderstorm…and it may look like a tornado, but there’s still one additional process needed to assist with tornadic development and that is the the rear flank downdraft, or RFD. Thunderstorm downdrafts, in general, are formed when cloud precipitation begins to evaporate and chill the air around it. This air, now colder and heavier than the air around it, begins to descend as a downdraft increasing in speed as it descends. The RFD, though, is a special kind of downdraft because it is thought to form via a different mechanism than simple evaporative cooling and colder sinking air. The current thinking, subject to modification with further scientific study, is that this downdraft is caused by air pressure differences between the updraft areas within the thunderstorm. RFDs can either be buoyant (warm) or non-buoyant (cold). Buoyant RFDs work to refocus the surface winds inward towards the storm’s rotating updraft. Non-buoyant RFDs will do the exact opposite and force the inflow air down and away from the updraft. A buoyant RFD, if strong and continuous, will re-circulate the surface inflow into the developing tornado again and again, creating a positive feedback loop and potentially a very violent and long lasting tornado. Look at it this way…the buoyant RFD is sortof like the string you pull to spin a toy top. Keep pulling the string effectively, and the top will keep spinning.
So now all the ingredients have come together and a tornado has formed. You’re probably wondering how bad can a tornado get? Well, fortunately, most tornadoes that form are considered weak and are within the EF0 to EF1 range and approximately 95% of all tornadoes are rated EF3 or lower. As you can see from the EF-Scale chart below, the EF0 to EF1 tornadoes would have winds estimated between 65 and 110 mph. While that’s certainly strong, and can be handy at dontating some patio furniture to your neighbors, it’s not strong enough to cause major loss of life or catastrophic damage. The very violent EF4 and EF5 tornadoes only account for about 2% of all tornadoes. While rare, tornado winds have been estimated as exceeding 200mph. On May 3, 1999, scientists using a Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radar measured the fastest tornado wind speed ever recorded, 318 mph, in the tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma. Before that, another portable Doppler radar had recorded a 288 mph wind in the tornado that hit Red Rock, Oklahoma, on April 26, 1991. How are tornadic winds typically measured? Unless scientific equipment is there in the presence of a tornado, using specially designed radar equipment to monitor the storm, the best estimator we have at this time is the degree of destruction it causes. This is why the EF Scale (Enhanced Fujita Scale) was developed, and is why you will frequently hear meteorologists say “Winds were estimated to be…”
Because most tornadoes are related to the strength of a thunderstorm, and thunderstorms normally gain most of their energy during peak daytime heating, it is not surprising that most tornadoes occur in the afternoon and evening hours. However, tornadoes have occurred at all hours of the day, and nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous giving sleeping residents of a community little or no warning. This is why we always remind and encourage all of our readers to have a working NOAA Weather Radio, or one of the Weather Radio smart-phone apps that will wake you up at night if a Tornado Warning is posted for your area!
So why don’t all thunderstorms produce tornadoes? We have days where all the atmospheric ingredients seem to be in place, yet not a single tornado develops! We call that day a “bust”, but I’m sure most everyone else is breathing a sigh of relief! This is what atmospheric scientists and meteorologists are still investigating and trying to determine…what exact combination of atmospheric conditions pull the trigger on the formation of tornadoes. Maybe weather itself should be included as an eighth “Natural Wonder” of the world for all its destructive power, even amidst all its beauty and life giving attributes. I guess that for now, you can think of it like trying to hula hoop. Ever tried that? If you have, you know that you have to get your hips and that hoop in perfect rhythmical balance in order to levitate and sustain the hoop. I imagine that our atmosphere is the same way…always seeking that perfect balance, but (thankfully) not always finding it.
It’s been a busy day across the plains! With incredible hailstorms in Texas and more supercells through Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri, we thought things were winding down. Wrong! A heat burst is occurring in Northwest Oklahoma right now! This is a fairly rare phenomenon that is caused when air from a decaying thunderstorm dries and warms as it descends. When it reaches the ground, it creates a warm/hot and dry wind that can last for quite some time. Check out the Oklahoma Mesonet temperature map here, and click around a bit to look at variables such as wind speeds in that area!
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/air_temperature/air_temperature
Temperatures:
Dewpoints:
Winds:
This graphic shows the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Monday, March 20. A standard risk of severe weather was in effect from Wichita Falls southwest to Langtry and points east. An enhanced, significant risk of severe weather was in effect from Southeast Oklahoma southwest into North and Central Texas. Overlaid on the outlook are official storm reports which show hail larger then one inch, winds over 58 MPH, and tornadoes. We see several reports of large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes in the southern portion of that significant risk area, but what happened in North Texas and Southeast Oklahoma? There are only a few reports of marginally severe hail and damaging downburst winds. The sun was out and instability was there, wind shear was very favorable for a severe weather outbreak, yet most folks only received garden variety thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. In terms of severe weather for the northern half of the significant risk area, our forecast was a bust. I want to explain what came together to cause the severe weather not to occur. We were always saying the highest tornado risk was in South Texas, where tornadoes did occur, but we expected large hail and damaging winds up north. We still got a few reports of those events, but the coverage was expected to be much greater. Lets go ahead and dive into some details and explain what factors came together to prevent widespread severe weather.
I saved this reflectivity image at 4:04 PM on Monday for North Texas. The white line on the screen is an outflow boundary, which is essentially the leading edge of rain-cooled air. To the west of this line, thunderstorms are elevated above the surface and temperatures were in the upper 50s. To the east of this outflow boundary, temperatures were in the upper 70s with dewpoint values between 63°F and 67°F. Those living in those areas know how humid and muggy it was on Monday. The airmass ahead of the outflow boundary was very unstable and as many of you could tell yesterday from the surface winds, we did have a lot of wind shear in place. So why did we not receive severe weather in North Texas? Take a look at that radar image again and notice where all the rain/thunderstorms are located in relation to the outflow boundary. All the rain and thunderstorms at the time of this radar image were behind, or west, of the outflow boundary. That means those storms were ingesting rain-cooled air and were elevated above the surface, meaning they were not rooted in the boundary layer of rich, unstable air. If that outflow boundary had not pushed out ahead of the thunderstorms, it’s likely they would have been quite strong to severe as they pushed eastward across North Texas. So why did nothing form out ahead of this line in the warm, humid air mass?
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth launched a weather balloon at 1 PM on Monday. This allows us to actually see what is going on in the atmosphere. I know there is a lot of data on this graphic, but I want to focus your attention on the black circle I’ve placed on the screen. Do you see how the red line quickly rises? That red line actually shows the temperature around 6,000 feet above sea level and that rise in temperature is indicative of a strong inversion, or cap, in the atmosphere. That cap prevented thunderstorms from developing ahead of that line. Based on the data this weather balloon provided, it appears temperatures would have needed to be near 90°F in order for thunderstorms to break the cap. Obviously we didn’t get near that yesterday.
Further south in areas south and west of San Antonio, they were warmer and the upper level forcing associated with the storm system was closer to them, thus the cap was weaker and discrete thunderstorms were able to form out ahead of the line of thunderstorms. These storms quickly became supercellular and produced giant hail and tornadoes, one of which did appear to be rather significant. Luckily, these occurred outside major metropolitan areas, but did approach San Antonio. Yesterday goes to show that no matter how well you think you understand a weather setup, mother nature will always throw something unexpected into the mix. Don’t think just because yesterday didn’t end up being a major severe weather day that future forecasts will be so lucky.
We’ve had a lot of folks mention that it seems very windy tonight across their portion of Texas. Since I have a few free minutes before I dive into my next term paper, I figured I would explain why it’s still so windy this evening.
This graphic shows winds around 5,000 feet above the ground at around 10 PM tonight. For those who aren’t weather nerds (which is about 95% of you), we have what’s called a Low Level Jet in place. A LLJ forms just after dark as the atmosphere decouples and winds above the surface can really begin to ramp up. Right now, winds are around 50-55 MPH at 5,000 feet. Some of this wind is able to mix down (transport) down to the surface, which is why we have some gusts around 30 MPH. As spring time rolls on, these types of setups will happen almost nightly. The wind should begin to die down around midnight before picking up again on Wednesday.