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Category: Flooding

8:45 PM Severe Weather Update

10 May 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Here is the latest severe weather outlook issued for the evening/overnight hours from the Storm Prediction Center. The standard severe weather risk is defined by the yellow color with the enhanced zone defined by the red. There is a low severe weather threat in the brown shaded zone.

Brown Shaded Zone: Low severe weather chance (5% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)

Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard severe weather chance (15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)

Red Shaded Zone: Elevated severe weather chance (30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.) This is where the highest tornado potential is also located.

A Tornado Watch has been posted for much of South Central Texas until 3 AM. The highest tornado threat should remain along and south of Interstate 10, but severe weather is possible across all of the watch.

In addition, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the Texas Hill Country and South Texas. It is my belief that flooding will become the biggest issue overnight. We’ll post updates as warranted on our Facebook and Twitter pages, along with our blog.

Severe Weather Risk in South Texas

10 May 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location on May 10, 2012

This graphic shows the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location today and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard “slight” risk of severe weather, shown by the yellow shading, for areas along and south of Interstate 10 from Fort Stockton eastward to San Antonio, then southeast to El Campo, Texas. Within this yellow shaded zone, there is a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location. In the brown shaded zone, there is a low chance of severe weather, meaning a 5 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location.

Brown Shaded Zone: “Low” chance of severe weather (5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)

Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard Risk of severe weather (15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)

Primary Hazards with the strongest storms: Golfball size hail and damaging straight-line winds over 60 MPH

Second Hazards with the strongest storms: Brief tornadoes

The risk of Flooding will increase later this evening with a Flash Flood Watch already posted for much of South Texas.

Rain Event anticipated for much of Texas beginning Tomorrow!

09 May 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This is the latest five day rainfall accumulation forecast released moments ago by the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center. This graphic shows anticipated rain totals from 7 PM this evening through 7 PM on Monday. Notice how much of the state, with the sad exception of the Texas Panhandle, looks to receive at least half an inch of rain over the coming days. The heaviest rain totals are expected to be located from the Texas Hill Country and points south and east. In fact, we may be dealing with flash flooding in some areas by the weekend as tributaries become filled. We’ll keep an eye on that possibility, but overall it looks like we’re in for a multi-inch rain event!

Rainfall totals through 7 AM

20 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Rainfall totals through 7 AM

This graphic shows the radar estimated rainfall accumulations from 7 AM on Monday through 7 AM on Tuesday. Generally speaking, the heaviest rainfall occurred within about 75 miles of the Interstate 35 corridor from San Antonio northward into Oklahoma. Keep in mind that rainfall is still occurring and that additional rainfall is likely in East Texas. This will go a long way to help improve, and in some cases, eliminate drought conditions!

Heavy Rain/Flooding Threat on Monday/Tuesday in TX/OK/AR

17 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Rainfall through 7 AM Tuesday

This graphic comes from the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center and shows expected, but not guaranteed, rainfall totals through 7 AM on Tuesday. After the rainfall event we received last week, many rivers are still somewhat full and the ground is still a bit saturated. As such, we won’t be able to handle as much rainfall as we did last week without flash flooding issues.

The heaviest concentration of rainfall will likely be confined to a narrow zone where a line of thunderstorms ends up stalling. Once this line of thunderstorms ends up stalling, these storms will continue to move over the same areas, dumping heavy rainfall and likely producing flash flooding. It’s not exactly clear right now where the band of storms will end up losing it’s eastward momentum and stalling. Some model guidance is suggesting that the band of storms will stall further west then what the graphic above is showing. It should be noted that if this band of thunderstorms does end up stalling over the D/FW Metroplex, or any heavily populated area, that rather significant flash flooding will be possible due to the urbanized environment. While the talk over the coming days will be the severe weather potential, keep in mind that flash flooding will also be possible. We’ll keep you updated with the latest rainfall forecasts over the coming days.

Severe Weather Discussion will be published at 1 PM CDT.

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