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Category: Severe Weather

8:45 PM Severe Weather Update

Here is the latest severe weather outlook issued for the evening/overnight hours from the Storm Prediction Center. The standard severe weather risk is defined by the yellow color with the enhanced zone defined by the red. There is a low severe weather threat in the brown shaded zone.

Brown Shaded Zone: Low severe weather chance (5% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)

Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard severe weather chance (15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)

Red Shaded Zone: Elevated severe weather chance (30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.) This is where the highest tornado potential is also located.

A Tornado Watch has been posted for much of South Central Texas until 3 AM. The highest tornado threat should remain along and south of Interstate 10, but severe weather is possible across all of the watch.

In addition, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the Texas Hill Country and South Texas. It is my belief that flooding will become the biggest issue overnight. We’ll post updates as warranted on our Facebook and Twitter pages, along with our blog.

2 PM Severe Weather Update

Radar at 1:41 PM

At the time of this posting, several tornadic supercells were in progress in Deep South Texas. Multiple brief tornadoes have been confirmed at this time, but damage surveys will be conducted after the event to confirm the exact number and magnitude of tornadoes. This event is on-going and will continue through the afternoon and evening hours.

Chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location

This is the latest severe weather outlook showing the probability (chance) of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location this afternoon and this evening.

Brown Shading: “Low” chance of severe weather (5 percent chance of having severe weather occur within 25 miles of your location.)

Yellow Shading: Standard Risk of severe weather (15 percent chance of having severe weather occur within 25 miles of your location.)

Red Shading: Elevated chance of severe weather (30 percent chance of having severe weather occur within 25 miles of your location.)

 

Primary Hazards: Tornadoes (mainly in the elevated risk) and Tennis Ball Size Hail with the strongest storms

Secondary Hazards: Straight-line winds and Flash Flooding (risk of Flooding will increase tonight)

Severe Weather Risk in South Texas

Chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location on May 10, 2012

This graphic shows the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location today and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard “slight” risk of severe weather, shown by the yellow shading, for areas along and south of Interstate 10 from Fort Stockton eastward to San Antonio, then southeast to El Campo, Texas. Within this yellow shaded zone, there is a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location. In the brown shaded zone, there is a low chance of severe weather, meaning a 5 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location.

Brown Shaded Zone: “Low” chance of severe weather (5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)

Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard Risk of severe weather (15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)

Primary Hazards with the strongest storms: Golfball size hail and damaging straight-line winds over 60 MPH

Second Hazards with the strongest storms: Brief tornadoes

The risk of Flooding will increase later this evening with a Flash Flood Watch already posted for much of South Texas.

The Atmospheric Cap

I promise you won’t need to pull up a comfy chair and beverage for this one.  I’ll keep it fairly brief!  You hear the weather folks using this term all the time…the “atmospheric cap” or “capping inversion”.  So what is it?

The cap is a region of warmer air over a layer of cooler air that keeps a lid on convective lifting and can inhibit thunderstorm development.   Remember from Thunderstorm 101, warm air from the earth’s surface wants to rise and will continue to rise as long as it’s warmer than its surroundings. Thus, when it reaches a layer of air equal to or greater than it’s temperature at that height, it will no longer rise.  Convection, or cloud formation, is then thwarted and unable to develop any further without the aid of other lifting mechanisms such as an approaching frontal boundary or surface heating that exceeds that of the cap.

What causes caps to form?  There’s quite a few, but the loss of daytime heating from the earth’s surface is one primary cause.  The earth’s surface cools faster than the air above, so you will have warmer air aloft most nights and mornings.  Once the sun has a chance to heat the earth’s surface, that heat is reflected back up into the atmosphere heating it as well.  As a result, the cap is typically strongest during the night and early part of the day, and weakest in the afternoon during peak daytime heating.  That’s when it’s most likely that the cap will break and enable storms to form if there is enough moisture and instability in the atmosphere.   Another primary cause is warmer mid-level air masses moving over the cooler ground level air masses.  Winds can move across us from different directions at different levels in the atmosphere, and one prevailing wind we have in Texas each summer at the mid-levels is a southwest or westerly wind which brings in that warmer layer of air from the arid regions of Mexico and our southwestern states.

A cap is considered “weak” or “breakable” when there is only a small temperature increase between the air aloft and the air at ground level.  Conversely, a cap is strong when there is a large temperature increase in the air aloft over the air at ground level.  The cap can be the difference between quiet weather and a severe weather.  If the cap HOLDS, it will be a quiet weather day.  However, if the cap weakens or BREAKS, daytime convection could explode and produce damaging thunderstorms.

May 7 Severe Weather Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large section of the Big Bend County, the Texas Hill Country, and parts of East Texas in a standard risk of severe weather for the afternoon and evening hours.

Brown Shaded Zone means there is a “low” chance of severe weather – 5% chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.

Yellow Shaded Zone is the “standard” severe weather risk – 15% chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.

Red Shaded Zone is an “elevated” risk of severe weather – 30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.

For weather information for your specific location, please visit your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov

Chase Status

This shows the probability of a storm chase within the next 5 days.

Click here for more information

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Weather Conditions

86°
30°
°F | °C
Clear
Humidity: 33%
Wind: S at 21 mph
Fri
Clear
66 | 90
18 | 32
Sat
Clear
66 | 91
18 | 32
Sun
Mostly Sunny
68 | 91
20 | 32
Mon
Mostly Sunny
68 | 90
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