



Here is the latest severe weather outlook issued for the evening/overnight hours from the Storm Prediction Center. The standard severe weather risk is defined by the yellow color with the enhanced zone defined by the red. There is a low severe weather threat in the brown shaded zone.
Brown Shaded Zone: Low severe weather chance (5% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)
Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard severe weather chance (15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.)
Red Shaded Zone: Elevated severe weather chance (30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location tonight.) This is where the highest tornado potential is also located.
A Tornado Watch has been posted for much of South Central Texas until 3 AM. The highest tornado threat should remain along and south of Interstate 10, but severe weather is possible across all of the watch.
In addition, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the Texas Hill Country and South Texas. It is my belief that flooding will become the biggest issue overnight. We’ll post updates as warranted on our Facebook and Twitter pages, along with our blog.
At the time of this posting, several tornadic supercells were in progress in Deep South Texas. Multiple brief tornadoes have been confirmed at this time, but damage surveys will be conducted after the event to confirm the exact number and magnitude of tornadoes. This event is on-going and will continue through the afternoon and evening hours.
This is the latest severe weather outlook showing the probability (chance) of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location this afternoon and this evening.
Brown Shading: “Low” chance of severe weather (5 percent chance of having severe weather occur within 25 miles of your location.)
Yellow Shading: Standard Risk of severe weather (15 percent chance of having severe weather occur within 25 miles of your location.)
Red Shading: Elevated chance of severe weather (30 percent chance of having severe weather occur within 25 miles of your location.)
Primary Hazards: Tornadoes (mainly in the elevated risk) and Tennis Ball Size Hail with the strongest storms
Secondary Hazards: Straight-line winds and Flash Flooding (risk of Flooding will increase tonight)
This graphic shows the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location today and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a standard “slight” risk of severe weather, shown by the yellow shading, for areas along and south of Interstate 10 from Fort Stockton eastward to San Antonio, then southeast to El Campo, Texas. Within this yellow shaded zone, there is a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location. In the brown shaded zone, there is a low chance of severe weather, meaning a 5 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location.
Brown Shaded Zone: “Low” chance of severe weather (5 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)
Yellow Shaded Zone: Standard Risk of severe weather (15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.)
Primary Hazards with the strongest storms: Golfball size hail and damaging straight-line winds over 60 MPH
Second Hazards with the strongest storms: Brief tornadoes
The risk of Flooding will increase later this evening with a Flash Flood Watch already posted for much of South Texas.
This is the latest five day rainfall accumulation forecast released moments ago by the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center. This graphic shows anticipated rain totals from 7 PM this evening through 7 PM on Monday. Notice how much of the state, with the sad exception of the Texas Panhandle, looks to receive at least half an inch of rain over the coming days. The heaviest rain totals are expected to be located from the Texas Hill Country and points south and east. In fact, we may be dealing with flash flooding in some areas by the weekend as tributaries become filled. We’ll keep an eye on that possibility, but overall it looks like we’re in for a multi-inch rain event!
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large section of the Big Bend County, the Texas Hill Country, and parts of East Texas in a standard risk of severe weather for the afternoon and evening hours.
Brown Shaded Zone means there is a “low” chance of severe weather – 5% chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.
Yellow Shaded Zone is the “standard” severe weather risk – 15% chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location.
Red Shaded Zone is an “elevated” risk of severe weather – 30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.
For weather information for your specific location, please visit your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov