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Category: Fire Weather and Drought

Drought Outlook looks good for Parts of Texas!

15 March 2012 David Reimer 4 Comments

This is a seasonal forecast from NOAA on the development/improvement of drought conditions over the next few months. The last outlook had Texas in the “persist” category. This new outlook suggests that much of Texas will see improvement in drought conditions with far West Texas and deep South Texas likely to continue to experience drought conditions over the coming months. We still have drought conditions, but we’re in much better shape as a whole then we were six months ago!

High Wind Warning for Texas Panhandle

27 February 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

High Wind Warning for Texas Panhandle

I know this sounds like a broken record since we just dealt with this last Monday, but another very windy day is anticipated for the Panhandle on Tuesday. Sustained winds up to 40 MPH with gusts up to 65 MPH will create dangerous road conditions for high-profile vehicles, possibly down powerlines and cause minor structural damage, create widespread blowing dust (Haboob! :D ), and cause critical fire weather dangers. Pretty much just like what happened last Monday. This High Wind Warning goes from 11 AM to 8 PM.



URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1001 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>014-016>018-281215-
/O.CON.KAMA.HW.W.0004.120228T1700Z-120229T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...BEAVER...
FORGAN...DALHART...STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...PERRYTON...
BOOKER...HIGGINS...FOLLETT...HARTLEY...CHANNING...DUMAS...
BORGER...MIAMI...CANADIAN...VEGA...AMARILLO...PANHANDLE...
WHITE DEER...PAMPA...HEREFORD...CANYON...CLAUDE
1001 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST
TUESDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST
TUESDAY. 

* EVENT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH CAN BE
  EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
  PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AFTER 3 PM.

* TIMING...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 11 AM NEAR THE NEW
  MEXICO STATE LINE AND BY 3 PM ACROSS THE FAR EAST PANHANDLES. THESE
  VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
  BEFORE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 8 PM CST.

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BLOWING TREE LIMBS
  AND POWER POLES DOWN. LAWN FURNITURE MAY ALSO BE BLOWN AROUND. THE
  STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
  FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH TO SOUTH ROADS SUCH AS
  INTERSTATE 27. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.


										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
								
				
		
					


										
												
															
								

									

										

											

												Wildfire in Burnet County, TX											

										

									

								

								
														
						
						

						
						
						
						
						

							

								


									
									
										 25 February 2012

									
									
									
									
									
									
									
										David Reimer

									
									
									
									
										
											0 Comments

										
									
									
								

							

							

						


						
											
					


											
					
											
						
				
										
						
It’s a beautiful day across Texas. I’m actually on my way back from Austin to Dallas as I type this update. Visibility is great, which is allowing more folks then what would be normal to see a large smoke plume (header) from a fire occurring ten miles southwest of Lampasas, TX in Northern Burnet County. Satellite  projections place this fire a little over two miles west of US-281, very close to County Road 108. I don’t have any information on how large this fire is or how many structures are threatened. This looks like a fairly rural area, so hopefully the potential impacts are minimal.


Here’s how the smoke looks on visible satellite around 5 PM…




Finally, here’s a shot I took while heading back north on Interstate 35 in Jarrell, TX. I adjusted the contrast/brightness levels to help you see the smoke, sinc eI Did thake this from a long ways away from the fire.




										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
								
				
		
					


										
												
															
								

									

										

											

												New Texas Drought Monitor											

										

									

								

								
														
						
						

						
						
						
						
						

							

								


									
									
										 23 February 2012

									
									
									
									
									
									
									
										David Reimer

									
									
									
									
										
											0 Comments

										
									
									
								

							

							

						


						
											
					


											
					
											
						
				
										
						
2/21/2012 Texas Drought Monitor


Here is the new weekly drought monitor for Texas. After last week’s heavy rainfall in Southeast Texas, we explained we were awaiting this specific new monitor to show us how much of the drought was improved. While much of Texas remains in some drought condition, this is ten fold better then what we saw late last year. Only 13 percent of the state remains in the most extreme drought category verses over 60 percent three months ago! Here’s hoping for more rain!


										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
								
				
		
					


										
												
															
								

									

										

											

												February 23, 2012 Severe Weather Potential – Discussion #2											

										

									

								

								
														
						
						

						
						
						
						
						

							

								


									
									
										 22 February 2012

									
									
									
									
									
									
									
										David Reimer

									
									
									
									
										
											0 Comments

										
									
									
								

							

							

						


						
											
					


											
					
											
						
				
										
						


As I mentioned earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has removed much of Texas from their standard risk of severe weather for Thursday. This is their new outlook they issued at 11:30 AM and continues to show that any severe weather risk will likely remain confined to extreme Southeast Texas. This graphic shows the probability of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location on Thursday. As you can see, the standard 15 percent probability extends from Houston and points east with lower probabilities to the north and west. Should any thunderstorms actually occur tomorrow, the severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging straghtline winds.


12Z NAM: Precipitation from 12 PM to 6 PM Thursday


This graphic comes from the 12Z (6 AM) run of the North American Model and shows it’s depiction for precipitation totals from 12 PM to 6 PM on Thursday. Notice the lack of any precipitation? That’s not a fluke. The NAM is indicating that we’re going to have a strong inversion layer, or cap, in place that will limit thunderstorm activity. In fact, this run isn’t indicating any thunderstorms across Southeast Texas tomorrow. Is that possible with a strong cap in place? Absolutely, but we can’t rule out a chance for a thunderstorm or two along a cold front that will be in Southeast Texas tomorrow. If thunderstorms do develop, instability and wind shear will be conducive for a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging downburst winds. However, that’s conditional depending on if we even get any thunderstorms to develop tomorrow.




Even if we do get a few storms tomorrow, the main story is going to be the temperatures! Tomorrow looks like it could be the warmest day so far in 2012 for Texas with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across North, Central, and South Texas on Thursday. Some locations may even get close to 90°F!


 


										
										
										
					
				

			

			
						
			
														
								
			

				

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						                   Mostly Sunny

						                

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