Mesoscale Discussion #711

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED…NE TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224…

VALID 240302Z – 240430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WITH AN MCS SOUTH OF FORT WORTH WILL LIKELY EXPAND
SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF FORT WORTH. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN CNTRL TX IS
SUPPORTING AN MCS SOUTH OF THE FORT WORTH/DALLAS METROPLEX. IN
ADDITION…OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NE TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS THE MCS MAY CONTINUE EWD AND
REMAIN SEVERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 04/24/2008