Mesoscale Discussion #580

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT MON APR 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF NW TX…SW/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 169…

VALID 072152Z – 072315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 169 CONTINUES.

RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN NOW AND 07/00Z.

INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY ALONG DRY
LINE NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF WICHITA FALLS. LINGERING
INHIBITION/TENDENCY FOR WARMING ALOFT MAY BE INITIALLY SLOWING
INTENSIFICATION. BUT…AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE CAPE TO 2000 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF
ACTIVITY…LIKELY SUPPORTING RAPID STRENGTHENING OF UPDRAFTS IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL
BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW…WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING OUT INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AND…STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 07/00Z…WITHIN FOCUSED
ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

..KERR.. 04/07/2008