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Posts Tagged ‘Alabama’

Concerning discussion from NWS Birmingham

01 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This forecast discussion was published at 8 PM CST and highlights the latest model data. Please realize this is a discussion and not a forecast. Needless to say, tomorrow really does have the potential to be a bad day.

.DISCUSSION...

BEGINNING TO WATCH THE 02/00Z NAM MODEL COME INTO OUR SYSTEM.
CERTAINLY AT FIRST GLANCE...IT APPEARS TO ONLY WORSEN THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE TREND IS COMING
IN LINE MORE WITH THE FASTER SOLUTIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN...FROM
GFS...ETC.  THE FIRST CELLS COULD BEGIN TO FORM NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN STATE LINE EARLY...AT AROUND 3PM...AS INDICATED BY THE
TIMING MAP ON OUR HOMEPAGE...WITH THE LINEAR FEATURE CLOSER TO 9PM
OR SO.

THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT MODE OF CONVECTION...WHICH
ARE UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.  THE NEW NAM
COMING IN IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN MORE EVIDENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
PROFILES BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND OR STAY BACKED WITH TIME...AS THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH RAPIDLY DEEPENS FROM 993 TO 986 MB IN SIX
HOURS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  NOT THAT INTUITIVE THIS TIME AROUND
CONSIDERING THE MODELS HAVE NOT REALLY SHOWN ANY KIND OF SECONDARY
LOW FORMING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT.  IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
THINGS WOULD GO FROM BAD TO WORSE.  FOR THE MOST PART...THE MODELS
HAVE NOT SHOWN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BE AGEOSTROPHIC...BUT THAT HAS
SLOWLY CHANGED WITH TIME AND TRENDS AS THE SURFACE WINDS FROM AROUND
00 TO 06Z HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY.  MESOSCALE FOLKS WILL HAVE TO BE ON
THIS TOMORROW...HOT AND HEAVY.  MY GOTO PRODUCT FOR THE PAST YEAR OR
MORE HAS BEEN THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR...NOT ONLY THE
MAGNITUDE...BUT THE ANGLE DIRECTION AND ORIENTATION TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  THE NEW RUN HAS THE DIRECTIONAL DIFFERENCE AT ABOUT 25
DEGREES AT 03Z...HOWEVER...IT INCREASES TO 32 DEGREES BY
06Z...MAINLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSING IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE PERFECT ANGLE WOULD BE 45 DEGREES
DIFFERENCE...SO WE ARE HEADING THAT WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.  ONE SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN THINKING IN TERMS OF
SUN GOING DOWN EQUALS LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION.  YES...IT VERY WELL
COULD BE LINEAR...BUT WITH THOSE VECTOR DIFFERENCES INCREASING WITH
TIME IT IS LIKELY TO BE FULL OF EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS.  WE HAVE TO GET OUT OF THE MINDSET OF SQUALL
LINE/QLCS AND START CONTEMPLATING BROKEN SQUALL WITH SUPERS AND
BOWS.  TO HELP...CONTINUE WATCHING THE BULK SHEAR ORIENTATION.  LONG
TRACKED STORMS WILL BE A GIVEN THAT THE 0 TO 10 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE OFF THE CHART AT FROM 100 TO 120 KTS.

THE FINAL ELEMENT...INSTABILITY...SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. AS
TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR 80 OR ABOVE AND THE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
60S...TALL AND FAT CAPE PROFILES WILL BE THE NORM.  CAPES UP AROUND
2000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY.  THE CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CAPE PROFILES WHICH ARE SHORT AND FAT.  OLD SCHOOL
FOLKS WILL TELL YOU THAT THE LOW LEVEL CAPE PROFILES FROM EITHER 0
TO 1 KM OR MORE LIKE THE 0 TO 3 KM ARE WAY IMPRESSIVE...SO UPDRAFT
INTENSITY WILL BE AT A MAX FOR EARLY MARCH.

MOST OF MY CONCERN CENTERS FROM AN AREA FROM A LINE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON TO CENTREVILLE TO GADSDEN.  THIS WOULD
INCLUDE ALL OF THE TCL AND BHM METRO AREAS.  NONETHELESS...IF YOU
LIVE ANYWHERE IN THE STATE OF ALABAMA...YOU NEED TO TAKE THE MORNING
TO PREPARE YOURSELVES FOR LIKELIHOOD OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
GET YOUR PLANS TOGETHER...AND DO WHATEVER NECESSARY TO PROTECT YOUR
LIFE AND PROPERTY!

17/KLAWS

Major Severe Weather Threat in Ohio Valley/Dixie Alley on Friday

01 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Let me start off by saying there is no severe weather risk for Texas on Friday. This event will occur east of our state. Saying that, tomorrow looks like it could end up being a very dangerous day across the Ohio Valley into Dixie Alley. Unlike this graphic this morning, this image shows the “general” risk areas. A slight risk is your standard risk of severe weather with a moderate risk meaning a significant threat of severe weather. A High Risk is quite rare and signifies a major severe weather outbreak. At this time, the “Moderate” risk extends from Northeast Mississippi/North Alabama northward through Tennessee and Kentucky, and north into Indiana and Ohio. That significant risk is surrounded by the standard “slight” risk which extends from Louisiana north to the Great Lakes. This moderate risk signifies a nearly one in two chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. Severe storm coverage will be lower in the standard risk, but significant severe weather is still possible. This has the potential to be a high-impact severe weather outbreak.

Without going nerdy, this graphic combines several weather ingredients from a set of weather models. This graphic shows where the most favorable ingredients for significant, long-track tornadoes may end up on Friday afternoon. This is not a forecast, but just one model interpretation. Current data suggests the highest tornado threat will be from Indiana/Ohio down to Tennessee. In addition to the tornado potential, widespread straight-line winds are likely. Some of these winds could be above 80 MPH and cause tornado-like damage… This event may be underway by mid-morning on Friday and continue through the evening hours.

We’ll continue to post occasional updates on the severe weather threat out east, providing continuous coverage on our twitter account @TxStormChasers 

Major Tornado Outbreak on Friday in the Ohio Valley

01 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak on Friday across a large portion of the Ohio Valley into Dixie Alley. This graphic shows the chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point on Friday. Note that there is NO risk in Texas. The highest risk (which is nearly 50%) is from North Mississippi and Alabama northward to Indiana and Ohio, with points in between. This has the potential to be a high-impact event with violent, long track tornadoes and long-lived bow echos. Tomorrow could be a very bad severe weather day…

Thursday’s Severe Weather Risk Trimmed for Texas

22 February 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Latest model guidance has come in less aggressive for Thursday’s severe weather potential. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has removed all except extreme Southeast Texas from the standard risk of severe weather. We’ll continue monitoring this potential event and post an update a little later today, but at this point it looks like Thursday might be quieter then we thought yesterday.

February 23, 2012 Severe Weather Risk – Discussion #1

21 February 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Please watch our Daily Weather Video for complete details on the upcoming severe weather threat…

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southeast Texas and South Texas in a standard risk of severe weather for Thursday. A standard risk is defined as a 15 percent chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any location. Just east of Texas, SPC has issued an elevated risk of severe weather for a large portion of Dixie Alley. Those folks could be dealing with a major severe weather event on Thursday, but we’re not out of the woods in Texas.

Unlike the past few systems that have moved through Texas, moisture will not be an issue. The North American Model (NAM) is showing a large warm sector across the south, with dewpoint values AOA (At Or Above) 60°F with some locations even above 65°. Those numbers are quite impressive for February and are always a warning sign that something nasty could be coming down the track. These projected dewpoint values are more then supportive of organized thunderstorms.

With the rich moisture in place and a strong storm system coming in aloft, instability values will be in excess of 1,500 joules per kilogram (J/Kg). During the winter months, we generally want to see values of at least 500 J/Kg to support the possibility of severe weather. Obviously values over 1,500 J/Kg are more then favorable to support organized severe weather, assuming other factors are in place.

This graphic shows winds at 500 millibars or 18,500 feet above sea level. When looking for the potential of organized thunderstorms, I want to see values at or above 35 to 40 knots. That’s the rough threshold I like to use when determining wind shear aloft. Values should be above 65 knots, so we definietly have enough wind shear to support thunderstorms.

We’re still three days out from this potential event, so a lot can and probably will change. Current data suggests the highest severe weather threat will be east in Louisiana and Mississippi, but there will be enough instability and wind shear in Southeast Texas to support some chance of severe weather. Current data suggests the primary severe weather threats in Texas will be large hail and damaging straight line winds. There may be some tornado threat, but the primary tornado threat will be to our east. We’ll be able to determine the specific hazards once we get a little closer to Thursday. In terms of timing, it looks like it should be a 2 PM to 10 PM deal. We’ll have continuing coverage on this possible event. I’ll try to post an update later tonight once evening model data arrives.

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