New Year’s Eve Chase Update

31 December 2010 Connor McCrorey 0 Comments

David and I are currently sitting in in Arcadia, LA, with Scott Peake waiting for initiation! Things are shaping up for a large severe weather outbreak with tornadoes possible, some of which could be strong! Fatalities have already been reported in Arkansas, and people in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi need to keep their eyes on the weather today, because any storm in this environment could be severe. We will be posting the latest updates on Facebook/Twitter as well as streaming all day, so check back often once storms fire ahead of the front!

- Connor

Updated: Tropical Depression Forming

10 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

EDIT 3:35 PM CDT:

Here’s an image taken a few minutes ago showing the state of the system. You can see an obvious low level circulation along with several hot towers going up around this circulation.

Good Afternoon,

Recon has found a closed LLC and several SMFR readings over 30 Knots suggest we do in fact have a Tropical Depression forming this afternoon and I expect we will have advisories initiated tomorrow morning along with Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the GOM coastline.

Both satellite and the Key West radar show the system has organized throughout the day and continues to do so this afternoon. As you can see on the radar image the system does appear to be organizing somewhat with a couple of bands forming on the northern part of the circulation. I would expect the system to continue to gradually organize through tonight and possibly flare up a bit during the diurnal maximum which occurs overnight.

The track of this system remains unchanged from the earlier discussion, but intensity guidance has changed somewhat. Two model pools have developed. One model pool doesn’t even develop this system, while the other pool develops this into a moderate TS. At this point I’d be willing to bet this system will develop into Tropical Storm Danielle as it has been organizing this afternoon. This system will continue to deal with dry air and wont have much time over the water so It wont have long to gain organization, thus at this point I don’t see it becoming much more then a 50-55 MPH Tropical Storm.

I’ll have another discussion later tonight. Another aircraft will arrive into the storm around 1 AM CDT.

- David Reimer

Invest 94L Organizing

10 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Invest 94L is located near Key West, Florida early this morning. Radar and satellite imagery show that the system is organizing in terms of increased convection along with a low level circulation. As can be seen on the infrared image above there is a steady plume of convection over this developing area. Development will be slow, however, due to the drier air to the west of the system. Drier air can be seen on this image as the darker areas. This drier air is being ingested into the system creating some difficulties for it. This should at least for the short term help prevent this system from becoming anything organized. It should be noted NHC has progged this system with a 50% contour of development within the next 48 hours. During the last 45 minutes the convective burst seen above has weakened so the likelihood is this system will not become a Tropical Depression this morning. An Air Force aircraft will be in the system by early this afternoon and will help diagnose its current state.

Wind Shear will not be a problem for this system in the short term. In fact if this system did not have the dry air to contend with I would be extremely concerned that It might try to rapidly develop a low level circulation. As is shown by this shear chat the system is currently in an area of 10 to 15 knots of shear and that amount only decreases as it moves further west.

The model consensus is to develop Invest 94L into a moderate Tropical Storm with winds from 50 to 60 MPH. This type of storm will still mainly be a rain maker, but could cause minor wind damage and a few isolated tornadoes if it was in fact to become as strong as a majority of the models indicate. But 50 mph is still a weak tropical system. A couple models take this storm closer to hurricane strength and a few don’t even develop it at all. Right now this does not look like a major storm at all and should bring a lot of rain and heat relief to the mid-south. If this storm were to somehow organize more quickly and hit a warm-eddy then a quick run and hurricane strength would be possible. That solution is not likely, but stay tuned just in case.

‘The models are in good agreement. Invest 94L will begin a brief westward movement later today before turning northwest and accelerating. This is another reason why this system should not become too significant. It won’t have much time at all before it makes landfall. Many models take this system into SE LA by Thursday Evening before turning it northeast. On this track and assuming this was a weak to moderate tropical storm, this storm would bring several inches of rain to the parts of MS and the southeastern states.

If this storm approached hurricane strength I could see myself making the trek down to NOLA for a brief intercept, but at this point that isn’t very likely.

- David Reimer