Things are flying by so fast that we haven’t had time to write a blog post on today’s severe weather chances. The Weather Service in Fort Worth just put out an excellent discussion regarding today’s severe weather event, so I’ll go ahead and paste it here. We’re on the way out the door and should be up and running by 2 PM with live video. This certainly could be a day we don’t forget for a long time.

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...MESOSCALE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH TEXAS...

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NEARLY ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
DEALS WITH LOCATION OF WARM FRONT DURING AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

AT 16Z...FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
MILLS COUNTY. FRONT EXTENDED ENE ACROSS BOSQUE...HILL AND INTO VAN
ZANDT COUNTY. THICK CLOUD COVER JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME MAY HINDER ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN
PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD INTO REGION AHEAD OF THE POWERFUL NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE.

BY MID AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME...EXPECT
TRIPLE POINT TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSON OR BOSQUE COUNTY.
DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SSW FROM TRIPLE POINT...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM ROUGHLY NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY INTO
HOPKINS COUNTY. LOCATION OF FRONT MAY CHANGE QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS EXPECTED NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS TO AFFECT THE
LARGER SCALE BOUNDARY LOCATION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60-70 KTS AND INSTABILITY LOCALLY OVER 3000
J/KG FAVOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT - MOVING SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR NEAR THE FRONT
SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. ANY RIGHT-MOVING STORM THAT
INITIATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HAVE ACCESS TO ACCELERATING SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS COULD PRODUCE LONG TRACK TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LEAD TO DANGEROUS LINE
SEGMENTS AND A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.

ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE
BOUNDED BY A PARIS...ENNIS...ATHENS TRIANGLE. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND
VERY LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

PATRICK/RYAN

NOTE:  THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT MEANT TO INCREASE
INFORMATION EXCHANGE ON THE MESOSCALE AND STORM SCALE...MAINLY
DURING WARNING OPERATIONS. THIS PRODUCT MAY NOT BE ISSUED DURING
EVERY WARNING EVENT.

TERMS DEFINED:
3BS = THREE-BODY SCATTER (REFLECTIVITY FLARE SIGNATURE FROM HAIL)
AP = ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION
BWER = BOUNDED WEAK ECHO REGION
CAPE = CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (INSTABILITY)
CIN = CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (RELATED TO CAP STRENGTH)
CWA = COUNTY WARNING AREA
GIANT HAIL = HAIL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER OR LARGER
HP = HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL
LP = LOW-PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL
MCS = MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM)
MESO = MESOCYCLONE
MT = MAX STORM TOP
POSH = PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL ALGORITHM
RDA = WSR-88D RADAR SITE
RFD = REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT
SCIT = STORM CELL IDENTIFICATION AND TRACKING ALGORITHM
SREH = STORM-RELATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY
SRM = STORM-RELATIVE RADIAL VELOCITY
TDA = ALGORITHM TO DETECT STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR
TVS = TORNADIC VORTEX SIGNATURE
V = GROUND-RELATIVE RADIAL VELOCITY
VCP = VOLUME COVERAGE PATTERN OF WSR-88D
VIL = VERTICALLY INTEGRATED LIQUID
VOL-Z = REFLECTIVITY AT LOW...MID...AND HIGH LEVELS
Z = REFLECTIVITY

$$