Posts Tagged ‘Arkansas’
Severe T-Storm Watch for extreme Northeast/East Texas
- Published on Saturday, 30 March 2013 14:36
- David Reimer
- 2 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM. This watch includes extreme Northeast and East Texas, or the two-tiers of counties closest to Arkansas and Louisiana. The watch runs along and east of Clarksville, Mount Pleasant, Longview, Henderson, and Nacogdoches. Large hail will be the main threat with some hail possibly larger than two inches. Here are a list of counties included in the watch. Further west, a strong cap should prevent any thunderstorms from developing this afternoon.
TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TITUS UPSHUR
Slight Risk of Storms Today
- Published on Sunday, 17 March 2013 09:35
- Jenny Brown
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The Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of northeast Texas and the Panhandle under Slight Risks for severe weather later today. A weak cool front that moved through yesterday will dip just a bit further into north central Texas, while the backside of the front will lift northeastward and out of the western sections of the panhandle today. A few weak-ish upper level disturbances will move across Texas later today which combined with the existing frontal boundaries and atmospheric cooling aloft will provide the potential for some storm development in both of these areas later this afternoon and evening…and into the overnight hours for mainly northeast Texas.
For the Panhandle region, this afternoon’s setup looks to be more high-based showers and storms which lead mostly to “Virga showers” where you see rain falling, but it’s evaporating before reaching the ground. But that evaporation process and the rapid atmospheric cooling it causes has the potential to create isolated issues with downburst winds.
For eastern Texas, there exists much better instability and ingredients for storm development, but a very strong atmospheric cap, or layer of warmer air aloft, will work to hinder much of the chances for storms to develop. However, given enough surface heating today, it’s possible for some stronger storms to develop, hence the Slight Risk area. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats, although a chance of an isolated tornado is possible. Overall though, the threat of more severe weather does appear to be into Arkansas and into western Tennessee.
Here are the forecasted highs for this afternoon. It’s fairly easy to see where the residual front is expected to be at this time…lifting out of the western sections of the panhandle and settled mostly into north central Texas.
The following series of forecast graphics are for storm development around 7pm, 8pm and 9pm this evening. Again, these should be high-based creating mainly Virga showers, but isolated downburst winds from these storms could be an issue. These will progress eastward across the panhandle after sunset eventually dying out over northwest Texas after midnight.
New Tornado Watch for East Texas until 1 AM
- Published on Tuesday, 29 January 2013 17:47
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a new Tornado Watch that goes until 1 AM. This watch includes much of Northeast and East Texas along with Louisiana and Arkansas. Primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but there is some tornado threat. The line of storms over Central Texas has gone severe during the past 10 minutes and does seem like it is finally organizing. Stay tuned for the latest and have a way to receive weather warnings this evening!
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
Active Weather returns Monday-Tuesday; Strong Storms Possible
- Published on Thursday, 24 January 2013 20:22
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
We put out our first discussion out about next weeks’ active pattern last night. Let me go ahead and say that this confidence will change by the time we get to Monday. We’re still five days out and the storm system responsible for the upcoming active pattern won’t even come onshore until Sunday. Right now we’re just guessing on many factors that will dictate the overall setup. That means we can’t get too specific as the forecast will change over the weekend.
My disclaimer aside, we are able to give a general thought process on the upcoming pattern change and what factors could support stronger thunderstorms in parts of Texas. Temperatures by Sunday will have already rebounded from Friday’s cold front and seasonably warm temperatures are likely. Here’s Sunday’s high temperatures from the North American Model (NAM).
With southeast winds in place, high moisture levels from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward into Texas and much of the Southern Plains. This will result in a large warm up for a good chunk of the Southern and even Central United States by Monday. These warm temperatures and high moisture levels will set the stage for a risk of stronger thunderstorms as an upper level disturbance moves in from the west.
By late Monday into early Tuesday, a very moist air mass will be in place across the eastern half of Texas with a moist air-mass moving northward all the way to Missouri and Illinois, a rather rare occurence for January. It will definitely feel more like April across Texas instead of late January. Confidence is high on the moisture return, so if we have a storm system come into the area, it would have the fuel necessary to support thunderstorm activity.
A saving grace, at least based on current data, is that the strongest part of the upper level disturbance will move north of Texas towards Missouri and Arkansas. That means Texas will be on the tail end of the energy and thus the threat for higher end severe weather would be lower. Several factors come into play with the upper level energy. Too little energy and storms will not form in Texas because a capping inversion will keep a lid on things. If the storm system were to move further south, the threat would increase for Texas.
Since we’re still five days out, many uncertainties remain and we won’t be able to give accurate specifics. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of Northeast Texas, among a larger area to our northeast, in a risk for severe weather on Tuesday. There could definitely be a severe weather event in Arkansas and points north, but our threat in Texas will be more conditional. For now, I believe any severe weather threat would stay east of Interstate 35.
Remember, we’re still five days out from this potential event. Many factors have yet to be determined and changes are likely. We’ll post our next update on this upcoming storm system on Friday. Hopefully data will continue to show the highest severe weather threat outside our state, but we can’t guarantee it.
Pattern Shift by Early Next Week; Active Weather Returning
- Published on Wednesday, 23 January 2013 20:47
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
We’ve had quiet weather for the past week in Texas. A short-duration cold front will move into Texas tomorrow but won’t stick around long. Jenny will have details on that in a separate blog post. I want to talk about a upcoming weather pattern shift. This shift looks to take place early next week and will result in an active weather pattern returning to the Southern Plains and Southeast United States. The good news is that moisture values will be unseasonably high for the eastern half of Texas by early next week. As such, fire danger should be mitigated. The bad news is that the high moisture amounts will combine with a strong storm system by mid-week and the result will be severe weather. The question is how far west will the severe weather develop and will it include any part of Texas.
With the Gulf of Mexico wide open and high moisture levels surging unseasonably far northward, it is going to feel more like April verses late January. That is never a good thing. When a storm system hits the high moisture Dixie Alley usually has to deal with a severe weather event. Temperatures will be around the same territory early next week as they were today, if not warmer.
If you haven’t been able to tell yet, we are still way too far out to get specific about the overall threat location and forecast. There is a good chance that model guidance will shift several hundred miles by the time we get into next week. Right now, Texas is on the western edge of the main severe weather threat next week. Subsequent shifts could shunt the threat east of Texas completely or move it further west to include more of Texas. Right now, it is simply too soon to tell. Unfortunately, it does appear that a severe weather outbreak is probable just east/northeast of Texas early next week. The upcoming system shows several similarities to past outbreaks in Arkansas and states just east of Texas. We will need to watch weather guidance closely over the next few days.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare severe weather risk zone for next Tuesday, January 29. They rarely issue risk outlooks that far in advance and any risk defined is already classified as an Elevated/Enhanced Severe Weather Risk area. Right now, this risk only includes extreme Northeast Texas. However, nearly all of Arkansas has been placed in this zone and folks out there definitely need to watch for forecast updates this weekend. We’ll be watching data and will post updates as needed.