Hurricane Recon in Irene (At 8/25/2011 6:30 PM CDT)

Good evening,I just wanted to provide a short update on Hurricane Irene as the eastern US continues to prepare for her impacts. This graphic is a overview of the current status of the storm via the Hurricane Hunters. I know this is a bit cluttered. The barbs you see on the graphic are wind barbs. Each line represents ten knots of wind, while each larger barb represents fifty knots. I wouldn’t dig too much into it, you’ve gotta be a pretty big nerd (and have a really big monitor to see the image clearly) to check into it. The reason why I have this image here is the fact that Hurricane Irene seems to be strengthening. A few hours ago the maximum flight level wind was at 91 knots. Recon just found a 111 knot FL wind, which translates to 100 knots at the surface. The hurricane center has kept that as the initial intensity. In addition, the minimum pressure is steadily dropping. Recon just measured a 946 MB central pressure, indicating the storm is indeed strengthening. Irene just completed an eyewall replacement cycle and atmospheric conditions continue to support intensification. It is not out of the question that Irene becomes a Category 4 hurricane before all is said and done. We’ll be posting constant updates on Facebook and Twitter regarding the live intensity data.

Hurricane Irene Track as of 5 PM EDT

Models consensus continues to remain high and the Hurricane Center’s track looks good. Hurricane Irene, likely still at major hurricane strength, will make landfall in eastern North Carolina on Saturday, riding up the coastline into the most populated sections of the United States. While Irene will be weakening by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic, the storm has such a large area of wind that the storm surge will be higher then average for a Category 2 hurricane. In fact, it’s better to think about the storm surge as a category HIGHER then the actually hurricane itself, as hurricanes are classified according to their wind speed. A good example of this is Hurricane Ike back in 2008. Ike made landfall as a Category 2 with winds of 110 MPH, but had a storm surge that is normally seen with a Category 4 hurricane.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you how bad the end results of Hurricane Irene could be, I’ll let the media do that. However, it should be noted that a 8 to 12 foot storm surge is likely along the Eastern Seaboard, including Long Island in New York. This does have the potential to produce significant, widespread damage along the coastline.

Rainfall with Hurricane Irene

The biggest story with Irene will likely be the extremely heavy rainfall associated with the Hurricane. Portions of the Northeast just experienced major flooding last week associated with several inches of rain. Hurricane Irene could bring 9 to 12 inches to a large portion of the northeast. Many areas are already at saturation and most this additional rainfall will simply run off. Major to catastrophic flooding is likely in some areas.

We’ll be providing continuous updates as Hurricane Irene approaches the United States.