Posts Tagged ‘Big Bend’
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm CDT – SW Texas & the Hill Country areas
- Published on Tuesday, 02 April 2013 14:50
- Jenny Brown
- 4 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 11pm CDT for the areas outlined in blue on the map below. Hail up to 3 inches in diameter and winds in excess of 70mph are the main threats; however, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Storms have already begun firing up in the Hill Country (Burnet & Llano Counties) and further west in the Big Bend region. Expect further development of severe storms throughout the afternoon within the risk area.
Increasing threat of Large Hail in Southwestern TX today
- Published on Tuesday, 02 April 2013 12:02
- Jenny Brown
- 3 Comments
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an updated risk outlook with an enhanced possibility for large hail over the red-shaded and hatched area in southwest Texas this afternoon/evening. Development of storms is still expected to begin later this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of the Big Bend region and progress eastward from there. We will continue to monitor and keep you updated as the storms begin firing this afternoon!
Rainy Forecast Ahead for New Years Eve Day
- Published on Friday, 28 December 2012 09:59
- Jenny Brown
- 0 Comments
Forecast models are beginning to come to agreement that our next storm system will make its appearance Sunday into Monday bringing some beneficial rains to much of the state…and it looks like it just might be gone from the area in time for New Years Eve celebrations!
There is still time for the models to change on us, but as of right now most are in agreement that an elongated trough of low pressure will drop south along the coast of California over the weekend, swing up across northern Mexico into the desert southwest, then across Texas as an open wave on Monday. This is different than the closed and cut-off low pressure system that some of the earlier model runs were forecasting. Cut-off lows are actually more favorable for extended periods of wet weather, so this is what we had kinda hoped for. Extended rain is likely with these because as they “cut off”…hence the name… from the main flow of the jet stream, they lose their steering and tend to sick around dropping rain everywhere until another system comes along and nudges them on their way. At any rate, this next trough/wave will still draw some nice moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and still bring rain to the area…beginning Sunday night in the Big Bend region, then spreading northeast across the rest of the state overnight and through the day on Monday. At the same time, a cold front will be pushing into the area which will then drive the rain southeast ahead of the front and out of most areas before New Years Eve celebrations are in full swing. The only areas expected to still be affected by rain later that night will be our southern zones near the coast. Except for a few flurries possible in the northern panhandle behind the freezing line, all precip should be of the liquid variety! Again, there’s still room for this forecast to change, but that’s what we have at this time.
I’ve attached some graphics below from the American GFS model depicting what things might look like beginning Sunday evening and through Monday. As always, keep in mind these are just forecast graphics to show where precipitation areas are currently trending for this time period, so don’t get too caught up in exact locations.
Monday – Midnight to 6am
Monday 6am – Noon
Monday Noon – 6pm
Monday 6pm – Midnight
High Wind Event for West Texas on Wednesday 12/19/2012
- Published on Tuesday, 18 December 2012 18:55
- David Drummond
- 0 Comments
HIGH WIND AND RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR MOST ALL OF WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY!
High Wind event that we told you a few days ago is now about 12 hours away!
As depicted in the graphic from the National Weather Service office in Lubbock, TX, a strong upper level system will be moving out into the central plains, and as is usually the case with systems that take this route, we are once again on the dry and windy side of things.
Highest upper level winds should be over western Texas by morning on Wednesday, although it appears there may be some lingering early clouds. If so, that will help keep the winds down a bit until later. Moisture will move east and deep mixing will begin and bring those winds down to the surface.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS have been posted for a wide area, including all of northwest Texas, and most of southwest Texas, along with eastern and central New Mexico. All of the area in light brown in the above graphic is under the High Wind Warnings, with High Wind Watches in the darker brown areas in Oklahoma and Kansas. A good deal of the area is also under RED FLAG WARNINGS as fire weather will be critical, especially in an area along and about 100 miles either side of a line from the Big Bend northeastward to the Childress area, as depicted in the graphic below.
Across Northwest Texas, we can expect sustained winds in the 35-45 mph range, with gusts above 60 mph! Winds may be a tad less across the Permian Basin and in the southwest in the plains area east of the mountains, since they are farther south from this storm system, but nonetheless will still be quite high at 30-40 mph gusting to 60 mph.
Guadalupe Pass area may see gusts as high as 100 mph! I expect DPS will close the road through the pass tomorrow due to the high winds.
This even will bring about several concerns, the first of which is FIRE! It doesn’t take much to get a massive wildfire going under the conditions we are expecting, so please be very diligent. Even that “harmless” cigarette butt you throw out the window can cause a fire consuming 1000s of acres as well as homes and livestock. Keep it in the car! Also don’t burn any trash or any other outdoor activities that involve fire or sparks. Winds will also be high enough to cause power line/pole failures, which can also spark off wildfires.
Travel will be hazardous, especially those travelling north/south, and in higher profile vehicles. In eastern New Mexico, as well as the Northern Permian basin and northward into the South Plains and Panhandle, dust will be at it’s worst, and we can expect zero visibilities in some areas next to open fields and contruction areas. Please slow down when visibilities go down this far. You might think you can handle it, but up might unknowingly be driving into a 10 car pileup! Please adjust to the driving conditions.
By midday, the system to our north will introduce a strong cold front in the Panhandle that will quickly move southward. The highest winds in the Panhandle in fact may be the strongest after the cold front passes with the post-frontal gusts 55-60mph.
This cold front should clear the South Plains by evening. Winds should be on the decrease after dark, and the front ushering in much cooler weather with temps in the Panhandle on Thursday in the 40s and the rest of of West Texas may struggle to make it out of the 50s.
We’ll also bring you more later on the potential winter storm for Texas the week of Christmas!
More Storms by Tuesday?
- Published on Friday, 08 June 2012 17:14
- David Reimer
- 0 Comments
Well, it has been a long time since we’ve posted on the blog. I’ve been busy with other projects and have really neglected to put out fresh content. That’s my fault!
Anyway, after some summer-time boomers the past few days, we’ve really quieted down this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is confined to the coastal areas of Southeast Texas and down in the Big Bend region of the state. We should remain quiet for the next few days with summer-like temperatures returning by the weekend. In fact, it looks like West Texas is going to get quite hot by Sunday and Monday.
By Tuesday, there are indications that we may have a chance of thunderstorms return to portions of North Texas along a stalled frontal boundary. Since we’re still five days out from this potential event, predictability is not the highest. I’m already mentioning this potential event because it looks like instability values are going to be quite high, likely in excess of 4,000 joules per kilogram (J/Kg). That means any thunderstorms that develop on Tuesday will have the potential to become severe and the presence of a stalled frontal boundary might help focus development. We’ll see what happens, but I thought I’d go ahead and start talking about it. I’ll post more as necessary.