Here’s what we know…and what we don’t know about the potential for significant severe weather across northern and central Texas this weekend.
What we know: A very strong low pressure system will be approaching the region late Friday and ejecting northeast into southwestern Kansas by early Sunday. Moderate to extreme instability will be established along and east of a dryline expected to set up across western north Texas, the panhandle and up into Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Explosive supercell development is likely within the enhanced regions on the graphics above both Saturday and again on Sunday. Large hail is pretty much a given. Strong tornadoes are also likely somewhere within those regions.
What we don’t know: What we can’t do this far out is narrow down the specific areas within those regions where it’s most likely that tornadoes or other forms of enhanced severe weather will develop. We also can’t predict this far out exactly how fast the trough of low pressure will eject across the region and how that will impact the movement of the dryline which will become the focal point for thunderstorm development each day. In addition, a strong cold front will be pushing south which may also have an impact on storm development; however, that is looking less likely at this time.
If you live in the threat areas, what should you do? Prepare! Take this opportunity to review your safety plan with your family. Check your weather radio batteries. Make sure you have supplies for your safe room or storm closet. Keep your cell phones charged. And most importantly, stay tuned for additional updates that will provide more comprehensive information about the storm setups for Saturday and Sunday as we get closer.