Tag Archives: Central Texas

Early Afternoon Update on Severe Weather Potential

2014-06-12_13-52-08

We continue to keep an eye to the sky early this afternoon. The atmosphere across Central Texas has become extremely unstable and supportive of explosive thunderstorm development. However the cap is still putting a lid on things for now. I do expect that we’ll likely start seeing a few discrete storms developing by 5 PM in the eastern Hill Country and into parts of Central Texas. Determining exactly where the first storms will fire is difficult until we start seeing signs of agitated cumulus on visible satellite. An outflow boundary from storms earlier today has set up shop south of the D/FW Metroplex and can easily be seen on visible satellite as a line of clouds from Stephenville east to Hillsboro and Corsicana. This outflow boundary could play a role in storm behavior later today as it may locally enhance the severe weather parameters with any storms that approach it.

The strongest storms today will be capable of producing destructive hail up to the size of baseballs along with damaging wind gusts over up to 70 MPH. One or two tornadoes are possible with the most intense supercells. Later this evening at least one cluster of storms may impact portions of Central Texas into the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas. The cluster of storms would have less of a hail threat but an enhanced damaging wind threat should it develop. Today is a nowcast type of day where we have to wait until storms actually begin to develop to see how things will play out today. For the moment the clouds across the D/FW Metroplex and North Texas are keeping the severe weather threat lower compared to further south where temperatures are approaching 90 degrees in spots. Should the outflow boundary south of D/FW start to move north (retreat) there could be rapid airmass modification and an associated increase in the severe weather threat in areas where it’s cool and cloudy at the moment. We’ll keep an eye on that possibility.

Once the first thunderstorms develop this afternoon they will likely do so explosively. Extreme instability and adequate wind shear will promote rapid development and organization of storms. Storms will slowly move east/southeast with the most intense storms producing destructive hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even a tornado or two. With such extreme instability in place we have to keep an eye out for storm rotation even with the weaker low level wind shear. In some cases the extreme instability values can compensate some for weaker wind shear when it comes to low level rotation. We’ll see how trends play out over the next 90-120 minutes. I expect the Storm Prediction Center will issue a discussion sometime in the next hour or two describing when they plan on issuing the first watches of the day. I’ll plan on posting another update in the 3 to 4 PM timeframe or sooner if necessary. For the severe weather outlook graphics I posted a bit earlier before the server had a hiccup head to my noon update here.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11pm – North Central and Central Texas

Much of north central and central Texas is now under a severe thunderstorm Watch until 11pm this evening.  This means that conditions are favorable for the development of at least some severe storms this afternoon and evening.  Over the past few hours, clusters of pop up showers and storms have developed across parts of north central Texas along the Red River, with more scattered development further south in parts of central Texas west of Waco, and just south of San Antonio…where a Tornado Warning was just effected for Atascosa County until 4pm.

Watch 11pm

TORNADO WARNING – Atascosa County – south of San Antonio, TX – until 4pm

The NWS office in Austin/San Antonio has issued a TORNADO WARNING for eastern Atascosa county in south Central Texas, south of San Antonio, until 4pm CDT.  This is a radar-indicated tornado moving southeast at 20mph.  Cities in the path of this storm include Campbellton, TX and communities within west central Karnes Counties and southern Wilson Counties.  Take precautions now if you are in the path of this storm.

tor

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

322 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…

  EASTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAMPBELLTON…

  WEST CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

  SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 318 PM CDT…NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE

  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF

  CAMPBELLTON…OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLEASANTON…MOVING SOUTHEAST

  AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…

  7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMPBELLTON BY 340 PM CDT…

5:30 PM – Flash Flood Warnings south of D/FW Metro

2014-05-12_17-36-07

At 5:30 PM the leading edge of a line of thunderstorms extended along a Paris-Corsicana-Gatesville-Llano-Junction line. This line of showers and thunderstorms is now nearly 300 miles long and extends from the Red River south/southwest into the Hill Country. Currently the southern portion of this line near Llano is severe with the potential to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. No other severe thunderstorms are currently occuring although stronger storms within the line may produce small hail and 50 MPH wind gusts. These storms will continue to produce heavy rainfall as the atmosphere ahead of these storms contains near record-high moisture amounts for this time of year. This means showers/storms will be very efficient rainfall producers. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated this afternoon but could become a serious concern later tonight. Storms will continue to develop ahead of the line this afternoon/evening with the line itself moving into Central Texas including the Austin and San Antonio Metropolitan areas.

2014-05-12_17-37-42

Speaking of Flash Flooding the National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Ellis and Hill counties in North Texas until 8:30 PM including Hillsboro, Italy, Waxahachie, and Ennis. The forward progress of the line of storms has slowed and thus several inches of rain are expected in these areas which could result in flash flooding.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 526 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CENTERED NEAR
WHITNEY… MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA…AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 830 PM CDT.

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARNED AREA…AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 800 PM.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE…COVINGTON…HILLSBORO…BYNUM…ITASCA…CARL’S CORNER…
MAYPEARL…ITALY…MIDLOTHIAN…WAXAHACHIE…BARDWELL…OVILLA…
OAK LEAF…RED OAK…ENNIS…PALMER…ALMA AND FERRIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

HEAVY RAINS OFTEN FLOOD ROADS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY.
FLOOD WATERS MAY RISE RAPIDLY IN CREEKS…STREAMS…AND NORMALLY DRY
WASHES. IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS
WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD. TAKE A DIFFERENT
ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL FLOOD WATERS RECEDE.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect tonight across Northeast Texas into parts of East Texas, Central Texas, and South Texas including Texarkana, Paris, Dallas, Tyler, Waco, Bryan/College Station, Austin, San Antonio, Kerrville, Uvalde, Beeville, and Victoria where flash flooding will be possible this evening and tonight. Short-term high resolution weather model guidance continues to suggest heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant issue. Here is a graphic showing one model’s output for tonight. This is NOT a forecast but this weather model has done well over the past couple of days. This type of rain would be great but too much at once could cause issues.

2014-05-12_15-45-32

4:30 AM Thunderstorm Summary

2014-05-09_4-31-52

We’re monitoring two separate areas of thunderstorms this morning as a weak piece of energy passes through the region. This energy has caused additional thunderstorms to develop over the past 90 minutes across portions of Central Texas into the Hill Country. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated but a few storms may become marginally severe with quarter size hail and localized damaging winds. The first cluster of thunderstorms is currently impacting Hill and McLennan counties in Central Texas. These storms are moving northeast at 20 to 30 MPH with small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rain. The second cluster of thunderstorms is impacting locations north of Junction and south of Menard with another storm southeast of Sonora or southwest of Junction. These storms are also moving east/northeast at 15 to 30 MPH.

2014-05-09_4-33-06

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is now in effect for the thunderstorm north of Junction and south of Menard. This storm is capable of producing quarter size hail and is currently impacting Highway 377 between Menard and Junction.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
428 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTH CENTRAL KIMBLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS…
SOUTHWESTERN MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS…
NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS…
SOUTHEASTERN MENARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 515 AM CDT

* AT 424 AM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST
OF SALINE OR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MENARD COUNTY…MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
LONDON AROUND 440 AM CDT.
SALINE AROUND 445 AM CDT.
LONG MOUNTAIN AROUND 455 AM CDT.
STREETER AND GRIT AROUND 515 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE US-377 NEAR THE KIMBLE-MENARD
COUNTY LINE AND ERNA.

Search our Website

Find us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

Receive Posts By Email!

Sign up to receive daily emails containing our latest blog post and weather content for Texas along with our storm chasing adventures!

We respect your email privacy

Subscriber Counter

Become a Storm Spotter

Want to chase storms? Become a Trained Weather Spotter and learn more about weather!

becomeaspotter