Posts Tagged ‘Danielle’

Invest 94L Organizing

10 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Invest 94L is located near Key West, Florida early this morning. Radar and satellite imagery show that the system is organizing in terms of increased convection along with a low level circulation. As can be seen on the infrared image above there is a steady plume of convection over this developing area. Development will be slow, however, due to the drier air to the west of the system. Drier air can be seen on this image as the darker areas. This drier air is being ingested into the system creating some difficulties for it. This should at least for the short term help prevent this system from becoming anything organized. It should be noted NHC has progged this system with a 50% contour of development within the next 48 hours. During the last 45 minutes the convective burst seen above has weakened so the likelihood is this system will not become a Tropical Depression this morning. An Air Force aircraft will be in the system by early this afternoon and will help diagnose its current state.

Wind Shear will not be a problem for this system in the short term. In fact if this system did not have the dry air to contend with I would be extremely concerned that It might try to rapidly develop a low level circulation. As is shown by this shear chat the system is currently in an area of 10 to 15 knots of shear and that amount only decreases as it moves further west.

The model consensus is to develop Invest 94L into a moderate Tropical Storm with winds from 50 to 60 MPH. This type of storm will still mainly be a rain maker, but could cause minor wind damage and a few isolated tornadoes if it was in fact to become as strong as a majority of the models indicate. But 50 mph is still a weak tropical system. A couple models take this storm closer to hurricane strength and a few don’t even develop it at all. Right now this does not look like a major storm at all and should bring a lot of rain and heat relief to the mid-south. If this storm were to somehow organize more quickly and hit a warm-eddy then a quick run and hurricane strength would be possible. That solution is not likely, but stay tuned just in case.

‘The models are in good agreement. Invest 94L will begin a brief westward movement later today before turning northwest and accelerating. This is another reason why this system should not become too significant. It won’t have much time at all before it makes landfall. Many models take this system into SE LA by Thursday Evening before turning it northeast. On this track and assuming this was a weak to moderate tropical storm, this storm would bring several inches of rain to the parts of MS and the southeastern states.

If this storm approached hurricane strength I could see myself making the trek down to NOLA for a brief intercept, but at this point that isn’t very likely.

- David Reimer

Invest 94 Forms; Eyes on the GOM

08 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Good Afternoon,

It’s been quiet season so far for the central Gulf of Mexico. However, it should be noted it is only August 8th so in fact we’re above normal in terms of tropical activity overall. The season is just getting started. Yesterday some models began to indicate a tropical feature developing in the Gulf of Mexico by early this week. Coincidentally there was a feature east of Florida last night that was beginning to develop so that put some merit in the models. Earlier this morning the National Hurricane Center classified this area of disturbed weather as Invest 94L and gave it a 10% chance of developing within the next 48 hours as of 2 PM CDT today. While development is not likely in the short term, I do believe this has a higher chance of becoming at least a tropical depression down the road, as many models indicate. Right now the feature is generating a substantial amount of convection but no circulation is evident. Right now the biggest impact from this system over Florida is the heavy rainfall which should continue for at least another day.

At the moment the system is encountering 20 knots of shear which is preventing the system from gaining any significant organization in terms of a low level circulation, but as the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico shear will decrease to 10 knots or less, which is favorable for development. SST’s or Sea Surface Temperatures are above 30C or 86F across a majority of the Gulf so in that sense any development would be quite favorable.

The only obvious reason why Invest 94 would not develop into at least a tropical depression would be the track of the system. As shown below we have two mindsets at the moments. Some models take the invest on a more northerly path keeping it along the Florida coastline. This would not be conductive for much organization at all as friction caused by the land would hinder the low level circulation. The second mindset is that the system would take a more southerly path and would spend more time in the Gulf of Mexico. This would allow the system more time to organize, but it would only have a short time to organize before the friction from land became a problem once again. Right now it looks like this system would be lucky to gain Tropical Storm status and this should not be a significant threat at all. The biggest problems would be flooding rains once again. Please note however if this system does travel over a warm-eddy in the Gulf that a few systems in the past have provided some unexpected surprises, so stay tuned just in-case this system somehow does organize quicker then expected. Either way this system should provide some heat relief to the Southern US states.

I’m going to post another update overnight as more model data comes in and we get a better idea of the current state of the system. Overall I’m just happy we have some heat relief coming as these heat advisories are getting old!

- David Reimer