Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook

This graphic shows the probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point (such as a house) on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The standard severe weather risk, a 15 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of any given point, is in effect from Southwest Texas northeastward into Southern Oklahoma. This risk includes Texas cities such as San Angelo, Midland, Big Spring, Abilene, Vernon, Wichita Falls, Weatherford, Decatur, Denton, Gainesville, Sherman. In addition, Southern Oklahoma is also in the standard risk. Surrounding the standard risk, a lower risk of severe weather encompasses more of Texas.

Saturday’s setup will be one with moderate instability and low wind shear. A cold front will be moving south across the affected regions on Saturday. During the peak heating hours in the afternoon, some storms may become marginally severe as the cold front provides atmospheric lift. The primary threat on Saturday will be ‘coin-size’ hail (nickel to quarters) and a few downbursts capable of producing winds around 60 MPH. Because of very weak low level wind shear and the overall lack of any mesoscale features capable of enhancing wind shear (as what occurred on Tuesday), the tornado threat should be low.

I’m actually sitting in Philadelphia International Airport right now waiting to board my flight back to Dallas. I was originally scheduled to fly out tomorrow afternoon, but decided to push it up to avoid the flight delays on Saturday along with possibly chasing if the setup warrants.