Updated: Tropical Depression Forming

10 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

EDIT 3:35 PM CDT:

Here’s an image taken a few minutes ago showing the state of the system. You can see an obvious low level circulation along with several hot towers going up around this circulation.

Good Afternoon,

Recon has found a closed LLC and several SMFR readings over 30 Knots suggest we do in fact have a Tropical Depression forming this afternoon and I expect we will have advisories initiated tomorrow morning along with Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the GOM coastline.

Both satellite and the Key West radar show the system has organized throughout the day and continues to do so this afternoon. As you can see on the radar image the system does appear to be organizing somewhat with a couple of bands forming on the northern part of the circulation. I would expect the system to continue to gradually organize through tonight and possibly flare up a bit during the diurnal maximum which occurs overnight.

The track of this system remains unchanged from the earlier discussion, but intensity guidance has changed somewhat. Two model pools have developed. One model pool doesn’t even develop this system, while the other pool develops this into a moderate TS. At this point I’d be willing to bet this system will develop into Tropical Storm Danielle as it has been organizing this afternoon. This system will continue to deal with dry air and wont have much time over the water so It wont have long to gain organization, thus at this point I don’t see it becoming much more then a 50-55 MPH Tropical Storm.

I’ll have another discussion later tonight. Another aircraft will arrive into the storm around 1 AM CDT.

- David Reimer

Bonnie – Discussion #4

24 July 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Good Morning. What we have this morning is Bonnie on its dying breath. Although it has a low level circulation, the pressure last measured by the hurricane hunters was 1013 MB, or the standard atmospheric pressure. Thus that’s not a low pressure at all. As recon was in the storm the pressure rose from 1010 MB to 1013 MB and there were minimal reports of west winds.

Another burst of convection has formed, but is well north of the ‘center’ of Bonnie. Convection formed earlier tonight and had no effect on the system. Wind Shear of 30+ knots is impacting Bonnie and development is not expected. In fact based on the reports from recon it looked like Bonnie was degenerating into an open wave and the hurricane center may confirm that later this morning. There really is not much more to say. Landfall of what ever is left of this system will be overnight tonight in southeast LA but it will most likely only be scattered showers and breezy conditions, much like you would see with a passing cold front. Except the humidity and moisture will be ridiculous. This will most likely be the last update on this system from me as It no longer appears to be a tropical system of any value. Thanks for stopping by! If you have any suggestions or comments I’d be happy to hear from you. Please leave a comment on this post or send us an email via the contact form on the contact page. Either option takes only a minute and is very appreciated.

David Reimer

Bonnie – Nightfall Update

23 July 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

This image was taken 35 minutes ago. A hot tower has developed near the center of TD Bonnie which shows it may be starting the process of trying to organize slightly. Now the system is very weak right now so the likelihood of it gaining much organization is pretty small but it looks like the system is not dead. A pressure of 1010 MB was just measured by recon a few minutes ago. A close eye will need to be kept on it overnight to see if convection starts to redevelop over the system. Conditions are not favorable for much intensification but its possible it could regain its Tropical Storm status if it can redevelop convection over the low level circulation. I’ll have more overnight.

David Reimer

Bonnie – Discussion #3

23 July 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Good Afternoon. This is the third discussion posted on the progress of the storm once named Bonnie. This very well may be the final update as it appears that Bonnie is in the process of becoming an open wave, or a complex of showers. Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall earlier today in Florida and quickly moved across the southern part of the state. What is left of her is now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As you can see in the image above there is no well defined convection and what convection left is located north of the ‘circulation’. There is some question if Bonnie still has a low level circulation and at this point I would lean towards the side that says she may be declassified later tonight. The convection over Cuba is not associated with Bonnie. As can be seen by the shear chart below, Bonnie is in an area of 30 knots of shear, which is quickly increasing to 50 knots. Anything that is left will likely be shredded to pieces.

Depending on whether Bonnie survives this the forecasted track of the system. Many models are in agreement so this forecasted path looks good. Even if she is declassified these areas will be affected by the moisture from Bonnie, thus can expect heavy rain.

Based on the strength of the system and the conditions over the Gulf the primary threat would appear to be Heavy Rainfall. This system could produce 3 to 5 inch rain amounts along its path, as shown in the graphic above. There really is not much more to say about this system. If there is any regeneration another discussion will of-course, be posted.

David Reimer

Tropical Storm Bonnie – Discussion #2

23 July 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Good Morning. Like I said yesterday I plan on doing one discussion a morning unless something comes up, in which case I’ll do supplemental discussions such as I did yesterday afternoon. The graphic above depicts the model outputs on the track of Tropical Storm Bonnie. These are from the 06Z suite this morning. The models have kept a fairly uniform track over the past day with a landfall in Southeastern Louisiana. They have sped up the system, however, which has brought the landfall time up about twelve hours to the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Tonight the system has been racing moving at speeds over 20 MPH. That’s pretty high for a tropical system and when recon entered Bonnie earlier this morning the question of whether or not this still was a tropical system (of any kind) become clear.

The first thing to notice about Bonnie this morning is the very small area convection is covering, although it is fairly strong for a system this weak. The problem is that the Low Level Circulation has become detached from that convection, and thus has weakened overnight. When the Hurricane Hunters entered the system at 2 AM CDT they had difficulty finding any west winds, which would indicate a low level circulation, and thus a tropical system. Without a low level circulation this is nothing more then an open wave or a mid-level circulation that could be associated with common weather systems. Recon did eventually find west winds, but they were very weak. At this point its unclear whether or not Bonnie will survive the morning.

If you notice the 5 AM position of Bonnie you will see that she is beginning to encounter stronger wind shear again. Because this system is so weak it does not take a lot of wind shear to negatively affect the circulation and that is exactly what has been observed this morning. At this point winds at the surface are still reaching 40 MPH, but this is mainly associated with the convection not necessarily the low level circulation of the storm. It’s not clear what exactly will happen with Bonnie today. Its possible that the circulation could ramp back up fast and in a few hours look better then it has before, or it could continue to deteriorate and we could end up with an open wave by noontime. The way the system looks now, It is not looking good for the future of Bonnie. Besides that there really isn’t much to talk about. Its clear that Bonnie will not have much time to organize in the gulf and based on her present structure and forecasted conditions in the gulf its not likely she will strengthen significantly. The track forecast has some confidence to it and it looks like landfall will be somewhere in Eastern LA or Western MS.

I will have another discussion posted later this afternoon with the hope Bonnie makes up her mind on what she is going to do, whether she just falls apart or gains some structure in her inner core. Either way the big story will be the heavy rainfall and the unfortunate impacts from the oil spill. Stay tuned to the site, or follow us on our social media accounts for the latest information.

David Reimer