The new severe weather outbreak from the Storm Prediction Center was released shortly before 1 AM. They have removed all of Texas from the severe weather risk zone for today based on the expectation that the cap will prevent much thunderstorm development south of the Red River today. Combined with the cap will be weaker wind shear and upper level forcing since the main energy with the storm system will be passing north of Texas. The result will be only low chances of thunderstorm development across East Texas this afternoon. North of the Red River across eastern Oklahoma, the northwest half of Arkansas, and much of Missouri the story will be different since the upper level forcing will be stronger and the cap will be eliminated. A line of thunderstorms should develop across those areas later today and into tonight with a risk of large hail, strong straight-line winds, and perhaps even one or two tornadoes. Overall the severe weather threat isn’t overly impressive but the atmosphere will be quite unstable. Even in Texas the atmosphere will be unstable and supportive of severe thunderstorms, but it looks like the cap will win out this time.
I can’t rule out one or two thunderstorms breaking the cap in Northeast and East Texas this afternoon. Any storm that does manage to develop could become quite strong with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Our severe weather threat increases on Friday as a cool front (really just a boundary with drier air north/west of it) moves into East and Southeast Texas where the atmosphere will be very unstable. The boundary should be able to lift the cap and cause thunderstorm develop by early Friday afternoon with a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Here is the severe weather outlook for Friday. We’ll be keeping a close eye on data pertaining to both today and Friday and will definitely have the latest on Friday’s setup throughout the day. While low level wind shear is going to be marginal tomorrow (keeping the tornado threat low, but not zero), the atmosphere is going to be very supportive of large hail. Here’s the risk zone for Friday as of the latest outlook released moments ago from SPC.