Texas Panhandle Radar at 7:46 PM

As I said earlier this morning, a few supercell thunderstorms have developed across the Eastern Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas. Most have remained marginally severe with hail remaining at or below an inch, but one or two have become potent during the 7 PM hour with one supercell southeast of Pampa briefly becoming tornadic with a few funnel clouds reported. As of the time of this posting, all Tornado Warnings have expired. These storms will likely continue through the evening hours, congealing into a complex of thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), which is a technical term for a larger area of rain/storms.

HRRR at 3 AM Wednesday

There is still some uncertainty on how long the storms will be able to maintain themselves before dissipating, but confidence has increased that they will be able to organize into a convective mass and move southeastward overnight. This particular model run (22Z HRRR) shows the storms moving southeast into North Texas, generally below severe limits overnight, moving into the metroplex around 4 AM. I should stress that timing is still up in the air, but this the 2-6 AM timeframe sounds good for any storms to move in from the northwest. By the time the storms reach North Texas, the primary hazards will be cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and some small hail. A severe storm or two isn’t out of the question due to cooling mid-levels which support the possibility of some hail.

Rainfall expected Overnight into Wednesday

This rainfall forecast covers tonight and tomorrow, and generally gives areas along and north of Interstate 20 up to half an inch of rain. That’s certainly possible wherever the storms track, but this won’t be anything like this past weekend and certainly won’t do anything to improve our drought.

Finally, here’s the chance of precipitation for those locations expected to be impacted by tonight’s thunderstorms. The first graphic is through the overnight hours, with the second graphic for the morning hours. It’s just a time cutoff, so just ‘combine’ both graphics for your chance of rain overnight.

Keep it tuned to Texas Storm Chasers as we continue to monitor tonight’s chances of rain.

- David