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Posts Tagged ‘Flooding’

Heavy Rain/Flooding Threat on Monday/Tuesday in TX/OK/AR

17 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Rainfall through 7 AM Tuesday

This graphic comes from the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center and shows expected, but not guaranteed, rainfall totals through 7 AM on Tuesday. After the rainfall event we received last week, many rivers are still somewhat full and the ground is still a bit saturated. As such, we won’t be able to handle as much rainfall as we did last week without flash flooding issues.

The heaviest concentration of rainfall will likely be confined to a narrow zone where a line of thunderstorms ends up stalling. Once this line of thunderstorms ends up stalling, these storms will continue to move over the same areas, dumping heavy rainfall and likely producing flash flooding. It’s not exactly clear right now where the band of storms will end up losing it’s eastward momentum and stalling. Some model guidance is suggesting that the band of storms will stall further west then what the graphic above is showing. It should be noted that if this band of thunderstorms does end up stalling over the D/FW Metroplex, or any heavily populated area, that rather significant flash flooding will be possible due to the urbanized environment. While the talk over the coming days will be the severe weather potential, keep in mind that flash flooding will also be possible. We’ll keep you updated with the latest rainfall forecasts over the coming days.

Severe Weather Discussion will be published at 1 PM CDT.


Updated Rain Totals; Heaviest Rain on Saturday

08 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

Here is the latest five day rainfall graphic from the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center. This graphic shows expected rain totals from 6 PM on Thursday (so an hour ago) to 6 PM on Tuesday. Notice that these values haven’t changed much from this morning’s graphic. If anything, heavier rain totals have been shifted west a bit. We still expect rain totals to be heaviest along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. From I-35 into East Texas, rainfall amounts will average three to five inches.

Here is a zoomed in shot of the rain totals. Luckily, rain expectations are not as high as they were a few days ago. We should still receive a widespread, multi-inch rain event, but we may not reach the threshold of significant flash flooding. If all this rain falls in the period of a few hours, there could definitely be flash flooding issues. If three to five inches of rain falls over the period of a day, the flash flooding potential will be mitigated somewhat. We’ll see what happens and will definitely keep you apprised of any flash flood watches in the coming days.

 


Updated Rain Totals; Heavy Rainfall Threat Increasing

08 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

flood

The Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center is still forecasting a widespread, multi-inch rain event for all of East and Southeast Texas through Sunday. Along the Interstate 35 corridor, rain totals could run from 2 to 4 inches. East of Interstate 35, we’re talking rain totals from 4 to 8 inches. That would do wonders to improve drought conditions, but that much rain in such a short period of time could also cause some flooding issues.

Here is a zoomed in graphic displaying the rain totals. As you can see, the heaviest rain totals will be east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Current indications suggest that the heaviest rains will fall on Saturday. If we can spread these heaviest rain amounts over time verses getting them all in a few hours, that should help mitigate most flash flooding potential. However, we start getting two to three inches of rain an hour in locations, we’re definitely talking about flash flooding issues. The first thought that comes to mind is Houston. They could have a fairly unpleasant weekend if they end up getting all this rain. I’m not going to talk about flooding specifics until we get this severe weather threat out of the way this afternoon, but keep in mind that I expect the heavy rainfall event over the next few days to be the main story verses today’s severe weather threat.


New Rainfall Totals; Flooding Concerns for East Texas

07 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

This graphic comes from the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center and shows expected rainfall totals through 7 PM on Monday. Much of Texas will receive rainfall over the coming days, but I am beginning to become concerned about too much rainfall across East Texas. We’ve been dry the past ten days, which has allowed rivers to return to their normal flow. However, six to eight inches of rain in a few days will cause flooding in some locations. One location that comes to mind is Houston, which can’t handle that much rainfall. These rain totals will do wonders to improve drought conditions, but we also have to be mindful of any flooding potential as well.


Rain is on the way!

06 March 2012 David Reimer 0 Comments

While there is some severe weather risk on Thursday (see this post for more on that), the story is expected to be heavy rainfall across the state. This graphic shows expected rainfall totals through 6 AM on Sunday. As you can see, the bulls-eye is right over North and Northeast Texas where rainfall amounts may exceed five inches. However, this rain event looks like it may be widespread and generally occur along and east of Interstate 27. While this means our friends in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas may not receive a lot of rain, most folks across the state look to receive beneficial rain beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday. As weird as this may sound after our drought last year, we actually have to keep an eye on flooding potential. If we do end up receiving over five inches of rain, that may allow for some flooding issues to develop. We’ll monitor that possibility as we get closer to the weekend.


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