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Posts Tagged ‘Flooding’

Thunderstorms 101

As we move into to the spring and summer storm season, we thought it would be a good time to share with everyone some basic information on how thunderstorms form and why they are most common during this time of the year.  So grab a snack and a beverage, find a comfy chair, and let’s learn!

Thunderstorms are “convective storms” that form with rising air and contain at least some amount of lightning.  To understand how thunderstorms form, you’ll first need to know that warm air is less dense and more buoyant than cold air.   Warm air wants to rise and will keep rising as long as it is warmer than the air surrounding it.   This rising air, along with a few other key ingredients, is what causes thunderstorms to form.  The United States experiences about 100,000 thunderstorms each year with only about 10% of those (10,000) classified as Severe.  To be classified as a Severe Thunderstorm, the storm must have wind gusts measured at 58 mph or more, or have 1 inch (or large) hail, or produce a tornado.

Thunderstorms need just three key ingredients to form:

  • Moisture (water vapor)
  • Rapidly rising warm air (lift)
  • Unstable atmosphere

 

The first key ingredient, moisture, is pretty easy to come by in the spring and summer here in Texas.  Southerly winds carry moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico, all the way through Texas and up into the plains.   The second ingredient, rapidly rising warm air, is also pretty easy to come by during spring and summer as the sun is able to heat the earth’s surface for an increasing amount of time each day.  This surface heating causes air to rise, expand and cool, then condense to forms clouds.  The last key ingredient, an unstable atmosphere, is a condition that exists when the lower layer of the atmosphere is warmer than the air above.

Once all the ingredients are in place, pockets of warm moist air rise up from the earth’s surface, expand, cool and condense into clouds.   Recall that warm air wants to rise and will keep rising as long as it’s warmer than the air around it.   As the cloud builds, the transformation of water vapor into liquid or solid cloud droplets creates heat (latent heat is the technical term), which makes the inside of the cloud even warmer than the air around it, allowing it to continue rising.   The rapidly rising air inside a thunderstorm, called an updraft, can be quite robust reaching speeds of over 100 mph in very severe storms.  The end result of this process can be a thunderstorm with cloud tops as high as 40,000 to 60,000 feet (8 to 12 miles).

While thunderstorms can occur at any time of the year, they are more prevalent during the spring and summer due to the increased amount of frontal systems moving down from Canada and through the plains.  These frontal boundaries trigger the lifting mechanisms in the atmosphere when cool air from the north collides with warm air from the south, thus kicking convection into action.  There also tends to be a greater temperature difference between air at ground level and air higher in the atmosphere, which gives the warm air lifting from the ground a lot more room to roam and potentially grow into a powerful thunderstorm.

The four largest threats from thunderstorms are lightning, hail, damaging winds (including tornadoes) and flash flooding.  According to the National Weather Service, lightning has killed an average of 39 people each year between  2001-2010.  Floods killed an average of 71 people each year, and tornadoes killed an average of 56 people each year for that same 2001-2010 time period.   According to the National Severe Storms Laboratory, damage from hail averages close to 1 Billion dollars each year, and damaging winds (classified as winds  exceeding 50-60mph) account for over half of the severe weather damage reports each year, even more frequently than tornadoes.

Thunderstorms can also be classified into several types, most of which you should be familiar with from listening to your local TV meteorologist.

  •  Ordinary – These are the smaller, less severe storms that tend to pop up during the heat of the day, especially along the coast.  Growing up in Houston, I recall these always popping up during the summer at about 2pm, lasting for about 30 minutes, then dying out and leaving the air about a billion times more humid.
  • Supercell – These are defined as severe, rotating storm systems lasting more than one hour.  These storms rotate counterclockwise due to wind shear which is wind flowing into the storm from different angles at increasing elevations.  This is the classification of thunderstorm most often associated with tornadoes and large damaging hail.
  • Squall Line – a line of thunderstorms (ordinary or supercell) that extend for many, sometimes hundreds, of miles.   Sometimes on radar, these will appear to take on the shape of a bow and will be referred to as a “Bow Echo”.  This type of thunderstorm system is most often associated with wind damage, although all types of thunderstorms can cause damaging winds.
  • Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) – a large circular complex of thunderstorms that can exceed hundreds of miles in diameter.  My personal, non-scientific, term for these are Messyscale Convective Systems because of the amount of rain they tend to produce.  Flash flooding is nearly always a major concern with these.

 

We hope you’ve enjoyed this overview of Thunderstorms and learned something new.  We are also planning in the near future to provide an overview of Tornadoes, hail and maybe an overview Hurricanes as we get closer to that portion of our summer season.

 

Forecast Rain Accumulations through Tuesday

Rain from 6 PM Thursday through 6 PM Tuesday

Many of us prayed for a rainfall graphic like this and we finally got it! The guys over at the Hydrometerlogical Prediction Center are forecasting rain across much of Texas over the next five days. Rainfall should average a quarter to half inch across West Texas, where amounts will be lightest. Rainfall amounts will be heavier as you approach the Interstate 35 corridor. Rainfall amounts of half and inch to one inch are likely in the D/FW Metroplex with rainfall amounts of one to two inches likely in the Austin/San Antonio areas. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected closer to the Gulf Coast and across Southeast Texas. Right now, the guys at HPC have rainfall amounts between three and four inches for areas between Victoria and Lake Charles, including Houston.

Flash Flood Watch for Friday

The National Weather Service in Houston has issued a Flood Watch for much of their County Warning Area beginning tomorrow morning and continuing through the remainder of Friday. A flood watch is issued when there is the potential for heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas and on rivers. Flooding isn’t new to Houston due to their proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and their drainage issues. Be alert for any roadway closings tomorrow and remember, Turn Around Don’t Drown!

Here’s the text of the Flood Watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.120217T0800Z-120217T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
321 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
 FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
 CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
 HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
 MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
 WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM 2 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
  AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN
  LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
  RAIN IS EXPECTED BY NOON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF
  HEAVIER RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED. FLOODING
  OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK IN GRIMES AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH
  1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL EXACERBATE AN
  ALREADY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
  APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND COULD
  BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FLOOD WATCH
  WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Flood Watch for Houston Metro on Friday

Flash Flood Watch for Friday

The National Weather Service in Houston has issued a Flood Watch for much of their County Warning Area beginning tomorrow morning and continuing through the remainder of Friday. A flood watch is issued when there is the potential for heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas and on rivers. Flooding isn’t new to Houston due to their proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and their drainage issues. Be alert for any roadway closings tomorrow and remember, Turn Around Don’t Drown!

Here’s the text of the Flood Watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.120217T0800Z-120217T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
321 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
 FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
 CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
 HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
 MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
 WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM 2 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
  AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN
  LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
  RAIN IS EXPECTED BY NOON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF
  HEAVIER RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED. FLOODING
  OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK IN GRIMES AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH
  1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL EXACERBATE AN
  ALREADY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
  APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND COULD
  BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FLOOD WATCH
  WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Morning Rain Totals

Rainfall totals through 11 AM

This graphic came from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and shows radar estimated rainfall totals through 11 AM this morning. Please realize that the actual rain totals could vary from location to location, but this is the overall average. While the new drought outlook wont be released until next week, I think its safe to say some locations in North Texas are officially out of drought conditions. Just looking at a few lake levels across Dallas, it looks like Joe Pool Lake and Mountain Creek Lake are actually one to two feet above their normal values. It will take several days for run-off to make it to area lakes and some rivers will remain in flood through the weekend.

Like I said over on our Facebook and Twitter pages, we really didn’t expect the amount of severe weather we ended up with. Short term data, even at 9 PM last night, suggested we would face some severe weather threat, but not the widespread nature we saw this morning. That goes to show you how difficult it can be to forecast severe weather during the cool season when you have several factors that cannot be determined until the event begins. We will have more on this morning’s severe weather in a discussion later tonight. We’re looking at data from this morning to find out what ingredients were stronger then expected. In addition, we’ll also post damage surveys as they are released by the National Weather Service.

Heavy Rain/Flooding Potential for West Texas this Weekend

This is the latest 5 day rainfall forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center based out of Washington DC. They’ve gradually been increasing their rainfall forecasts for the past few days, and the latest one is quite a bit of welcome news for Northwest Texas. Based on this forecast, the guys at HPC are expecting at least 5 inches of rain to fall from the Eastern Texas Panhandle all the way down into West Texas. Now we’re seeing even higher numbers, with rain possibly exceeding TEN inches from Abilene northward to Vernon, into Western Oklahoma. This is the type of rain that can put a dent in the drought. It won’t completely eliminate it, but it will definitely help. As previously discussed, there is still expected to be a sharp cutoff in the precipitation amounts along the I-35 corridor, with little to no rain just east of I-35 expected. Rainfall is expected to really pick up overnight tonight and last into the weekend.

Since we’re now talking about 6-10+ inch rain amounts, we now must begin to consider the possibility of some flash flooding issues. Just because we’re in an extreme drought does not negate the possibility of flooding with very heavy rainfall. In fact, because the ground is so dry it won’t be able to absorb water as quickly, thus runoff and flash flooding is a distinct possibility. I’d like to remind those living in Northwest Texas to consider areas that normally flood with very heavy rainfall and make the appropriate precautions, as some flooding is likely with these heavy rainfall amounts. Remember when driving and coming upon a flooded roadway, Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

 

Chase Status

This shows the probability of a storm chase within the next 5 days.

Click here for more information

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Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 34%
Wind: S at 18 mph
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Clear
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18 | 32
Sat
Clear
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18 | 32
Sun
Mostly Sunny
68 | 91
20 | 32
Mon
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