Here’s the new severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Severe weather probabilities have been maintained from the previous outlook. It should be noted that these values could be adjusted higher in later outlooks by the Storm Prediction Center once the details of today’s event becomes clearer. Here’s the full outlook.

   ...CNTRL AND EAST TX...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN SE AZ WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TO NEWD ACROSS
   WEST TX TODAY. TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...A 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET WILL STRENGTHEN...RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NWD INTO CNTRL
   TX THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
   THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WHERE A LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE I-35
   CORRIDOR FROM NEAR DALLAS/FORTH WORTH SWD TO NEAR BRIAN-COLLEGE
   STATION. THIS LINE SHOULD PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE HOUSTON AREA DURING THE EVENING.

   AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS...A 65 TO 80 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO
   65 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER 60S F
   AS FAR NORTH AS DALLAS WITH UPPER 60S F LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE TX
   COAST WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
   NRN HALF OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   MOST CERTAIN. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHILE THE
   CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND A
   LINE ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
   MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEPEND ON UPON HOW MUCH
   DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE IN CNTRL AND EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH THE SRN END OF THE LINE SHOULD AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA THIS
   EVENING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK IN SE TX SUGGESTING
   THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MORE ISOLATED THERE.

   ...NW TX/SW OK...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST
   TX AT DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NWRN EDGE
   OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TX THIS MORNING SHOW SOME CAPE
   IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AS THE
   AIRMASS WARMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS CONVECTION
   INITIATES JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS
   MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT NW TX AND SW OK AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN MARGINAL WITH A 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY SUFFICIENT TO
   COVER THE THREAT.