To recap, we went through a winter storm to start the month, beautiful weather this week, and now a chance for severe storms Saturday. Yep, this is Texas weather!
There is an elevated risk for strong to severe storms mainly along and east of I-35 starting early Saturday and lasting through Saturday evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible. There are a lot of uncertainties in the forecast due to the timing of the upper level system, how far south the cold front makes it, and how much sunshine we get in the warm sector. Bottom line, be weather aware! This time of year we don’t often think about severe weather but Saturday could be an active day.
Here is the timing of the rain, as of the NAM model:
Saturday at 7 AM – Storms become numerous as the upper level storm moves in and beginning shifting east. Heaviest of the activity will be from the Red River to Abilene to San Angelo. Hail and gusty winds the main threats.
Saturday at Noon – This is when individual storms that form ahead of the main line could pose a tornado threat. Areas from Waco to Austin and points east towards Bryan, College Station and Victoria will need to watch out. Any tornadoes that form will likely be short lived but could still produce damage. The main line of storms will still produce heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds along the I-35 corridor from DFW to San Antonio.
Saturday at 7 PM – Storms push into East Texas so folks in Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Houston, and Beaumont will be under the gun. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible until late in the evening when everything pushes out of the state.
I mentioned before that a cold front will be draped across the state and it is to the south of it where the highest risk for severe weather will be. Below is an image of the temperatures and you can see the large gradient. Any shift in the front could add or reduce the number of people who see severe weather.
Hopefully this gives a sense of the timing. More details on the severe weather will be addressed as we get closer to the event. Saturday is a big travel day, shopping day so make sure people are aware of what is coming.