Hurricane Earl – Category 4 Monster

30 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Just before recon left this afternoon they found Earl had strengthened with surface winds of at least 115 Knots (130 MPH). Since that time the hurricane has continued to organize and now displays a amazing view. Like I said last night the intensity forecast would go out the window when Rapid Intensification began. As of now it has and until a ERC starts its unlikely the strengthening stops. If a ERC does not stop the hurricane it could become a Category 5 Hurricane later tonight. Below are two images taken fifteen minutes ago showing a classic intense hurricane.

Click each image for the larger version.

Hurricane Earl – Discussion #1

29 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Good Evening,

Like I did with Hurricane Bonnie and Colin I plan on starting up the usual discussions again since this storm should become the strongest one we have had so far this year in the Atlantic Basin. I chose to write this discussion just after the 11 PM advisory was released because they have the best handle on what’s currently ongoing. First, let me say I try to keep these discussions in terms that those not interested in weather can understand, but also advanced enough to help explain what is actually on-going.

Lets dive into it! The radar image above was taken at 9:15 PM CDT. The center of circulation, or eye, is obviously visible and is still moving west at about 15 MPH. The system has been organizing all day at a steady pace and just became a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 85 Knots/100 MPH and a pressure of 971. At the time of this writing recon was about to make another pass through the center, but the pressure has been dropping about 1 MB every hour. So this is not a rapid intensification, but the system is strengthening.

The infrared image is from 8:45 PM. While the eye is clearly visible on radar imagery, it is not yet seen on the infrared imagery. An Air Force C-130 currently investigating the storm have reported a 35 mile wide eye with the northwest portion of that eye still developing. The eye size is rather large for this point in the system’s development but that may go on to help it. As the eye shrinks a hurricane strengthens. A good example is that of a ice skater. When the skater wraps their arms in they begin to spin faster and faster. The same applies to a hurricane. Thus the 35 mile wide eye should be able to shrink before a ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) begins. Hurricane Danielle is still throwing some shear down at Earl which has kept it’s intensification rate under control, but conditions are expected to become more favorable for more strengthening by tomorrow.

The above graphic is the forecasted wind speeds for the hurricane through the time period. As shown above the hurricane center is forecasting Earl to become a Category 4 hurricane before weakening toward the end of the period. I would recommend not focusing on the time periods for the wind strength because when Earl organizes its inner core it is likely at least some form of enhanced/rapid intensification will occur causing the pressure to drop dramatically in about a twelve hour time-frame. That could start in three hours, or twenty-three hours. It should be noted that Earl has become much better organized throughout the day and when the eyewall closes off, which could occur at any time, it could begin to strengthen faster and It should become a Major Hurricane (Winds of 115+ MPH) by the conclusion of Monday, if not sooner. The models make Earl at least a Category 3 hurricane, but it should be noted the intensify is already 85 knots so the time-frame should be moved up.

(Above graphic #1 is 11 PM NHC track; graphic #2 are the 0Z early model tracks) Shown above is the official forecast from the hurricane center and the 0Z guidance from tonight. The models are in tight agreement that Earl should begin to move northwest by tomorrow evening. The important question is when will Earl turn north. Right now both the models and NHC believe Earl will turn north by 73W. The turn is the most important part of this forecast. If the turn happens past 75W then the possibility increases significantly of a direct hit on the US seaboard. However because of a strong ridge in place we know Earl will be deflected to the north/northeast and confidence is high right now it will happen well east of the US mainland, but in case any part of that forecast changes folks should keep an eye on it as it will be a major hurricane during this time-frame. Now saying that, the east coast is going to experience major surf and rip-tide issues. I personally know that some cities along the New Jersey coast experienced very severe beach erosion from this past winter and unfortunately some of their efforts to restore the beaches will be negated by Earl. The biggest thread to the US coast looks to be very powerful rip tides and I’m afraid that this could end up being a news story later in the week. It’s looking likely this will be a fish storm after it’s done affecting the Virgin Islands and P.R.

Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook pages for the latest on Hurricane Earl and the system that will develop behind it. That storm will be called Fiona and will need to be watched for a potential US impact.

- David Reimer

Tropical Weather Galore!

26 August 2010 David Reimer 0 Comments

Good Afternoon,

As has been warned for several months, conditions across the Atlantic have become favorable for tropical systems to finally begin forming in earnest. This afternoon we have THREE systems of interest that bear watching. For the sake of organization I’m going to divide each of them into their own specific section. The graphic below depicts all three systems.

Hurricane Daniel

Hurricane Danielle has been organizing for the better part of the day. After looking quite well early this morning she began to fluctuate but by late morning it had once again begun to organize and show an intermittent eye feature. As you can see above from the images taken at 3:15 PM CDT Hurricane Danielle now has a well established eye, which can be easily seen on the Inferred shot. While the eye feature is certainly impressive and a sign of a significant system, dry air entrainment has been disrupting the eastern part of the circulation for most of the day and as such only a steady strengthening has been taking place. However, convection has begun to slowly increase on the eastern side of the circulation and the Hurricane Center has upgraded Danielle to 110 MPH, or just below major hurricane status. If Danielle is able to fire up convection on the eastern side of the circulation and overcome the fifteen knots of shear and dry air impacting it I don’t see any reason why it should not be able to gain five knots and become a major hurricane. The DVORAK ADT numbers are rising and its quite possible Danielle will be upgraded to 100 knots later tonight. The peak forecast from NHC takes her up to 105 knots before she begins to encounter cooler water and increasing shear.

A majority of the dynamic and statistical models bring Danielle up to a Category 3 hurricane before she begins to encounter less favorable conditions in two days. Right now the system is heading northwest but should begin a north/northeastward movement before too long. This system is expected to remain east of Bermuda and remain a fish storm.

Tropical Storm Earl

Many tropical weather enthusiasts have been watching the system known as Earl even before it left Africa. It was quite active and was expected to ramp up into a tropical system fairly quickly once it moved into the Atlantic. Alas that did occur and we now have Earl nearly in the same location Danielle was a few days ago. This afternoon Earl does not look particularly impressive on Inferred but has in fact become more organized this afternoon in terms of it’s structure.

The above graphic depicts all three systems of interest, with Earl being the middle most system. A significant amount of dry air is surrounding Earl which is inhibiting much strengthening but even then Earl should be able to gain some organization as we go on through the next several days.

Most models are in agreement that Earl will begin to gain organization and strengthen beginning tomorrow and then maintain a steady rate of strengthening through the time period, with many models suggesting Earl will be a hurricane by the end of the weekend. This does seem probable considering the warm SST’s and the improving conditions. In fact if Earl was able to gain convection tonight and work out any dry air it’s likely it would take off quite quickly. As of now the Hurricane Center is forecasting Earl to become a major hurricane by early next week and if it can become organized enough and everything is timed right this system does have the potential to become quite a hurricane. Both the HWRF and GFDL are indicating Earl as a Category 4 hurricane north of the Virgin Islands by next week. While each of those models has a high-intensity biased it does seem probable Earl will become a Major Hurricane. So that leaves one very important question. Where is Earl going?

A majority of the models take Earl on a similar track to Danielle with the system being turned north/northeast by a strong trough come early next week. Now there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the tracks above. A few days ago the models had Earl turning north by 55W and those outputs have been shifting west almost every model run now and we’re past 65W. If this system continues to near 70W the potential will be there for this system to be turned more westerly before making the north turn, thus having the potential to make an impact on the United States (Florida to be specific). However as of this time it looks like it will end up being a recurve, with a potential impact on Bermuda as a strong system. This system will need to be watched for any changes that could change the path.

Invest 97 (Fiona)

7 PM CDT Edit: Invest 97 has become better organized in the past several hours and NHC has raised the probs for development from 20% to 60% within the next 48 hours.

Invest 97 moved off Africa yesterday and since then has been maintaining a steady amount of convection. Conditions are favorable for this system to become tropical in nature and it’s almost guaranteed it will. This system is at a lower latitude then Danielle or Earl thus increasing the potential this could be a cribber runner and eventually end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Systems in this location have done that, so at this point this system seems to have the most potential to affect the United States in the next two weeks. At this point there is not much to say so I’ll go ahead and post the track/intensity guidance from the 18Z suites.

Invest 97 was declared earlier this afternoon thus not many models have picked up on it yet, but those that have develop this into a Tropical Storm within the next day which is possible, but not overly likely at this point. We’ll see what the storm does tonight and how well it can organize. The point is this system, out of all three, has the highest potential to impact the United States down the road.

Hurricane Frank

Hurricane Frank will likely peak out between 90 and 100 MPH this evening before beginning to weaken due to enviormental factors as many models are showing. The system is going to turn north towards Baja California but will likely dissipate before it arrives. In La Nina seasons normally the Atlantic is more active then the pacific so we may not see many more systems in the eastern pacific this year, but tropical weather has its mysteries so who knows.

The tropics should continue to boil for the next several weeks so stay tuned. Not all the Atlantic systems will re-curve and its inevitable before one comes strolling on in towards the United States.

- David Reimer